《水污染防治行动计划》实施的宏观经济影响分析

Impacts of National Water Pollution Control Action Plan on China's Economy

中文关键词:  水污染防治行动计划  宏观经济影响  投入产出模型

英文关键词:National Water Pollution Control Action Plan  economic impacts  input-output model

中文摘要:

      基于全产业链视角,本文采用投入产出模型定量模拟了《水污染防治行动计划》(以下简称《水十条》)项目实施的社会经济影响.结果表明,《水十条》的实施:①起到了刺激经济发展、促进社会就业的作用,将拉动我国GDP 累计增加56 964 亿元,其中直接贡献占13%,间接贡献占87%;累计增加非农就业岗位398 万人,其中直接贡献占29%,间接贡献占71%.②将拉动环保装备制造、建筑安装、环保技术服务等相关行业的发展,同时通过产业链关联间接带动农林牧渔业、交通运输及仓储业、批发和零售业、专用设备制造业等行业的发展.③在我国环境保护投资仍然严重不足的情况下,加大环保投资有利于带动节能环保产业的发展,促进我国经济战略转型.

英文摘要:

      From the perspective of full industry chain, an input-output model was applied to quantitatively simulate the socio-economic impacts of National Water Pollution Control Action Plan (NWPCAP). The results show that: ① The implementation of NWPCAP will bring about 5696.4 billion CNY of GDP increase (13% direct contribution and 87% indirect contribution) and 3.98 million new job (29% direct contribution and 71% indirect contribution) in China. ② Some industries will be directly promoted by the implementation of NAPCAP, such as pollution-abatement equipment, construction, environmental services. Some industries will be indirectly stimulated as well, including agriculture, transportation, warehousing, wholesale, retail sales and special equipment manufacturing. ③ China, in the future, should increase environmental protection investment to stimulate the development of energy conservation and environmental protection industry and restructure China's economic mode, when still have a big gap in environmental protection in China.