污染排放对经济发展的负面影响研究

Research on the Negative Impacts of Pollution Emission on Economic Development

中文关键词:  污染排放  经济发展  经济结构

英文关键词:pollution emission  economic development  economic structure

中文摘要:

      以1998—2009 年各地区的数据为样本,利用联立方程模型检验污染排放对经济发展的负面影响,以及宏观经济结构对这种影响的调节作用.研究发现,经济发展与污染排放之间存在相互影响的关系,经济结构与污染排放之间也存在相互影响的关系.当期经济发展水平的提高必然会引起污染排放的增加,但当期污染排放的增加会对今后经济发展产生滞后的负面效应.投资和出口对污染排放的负面影响存在调节作用,即投资比重越高,出口比重越低,当期经济增长引起的污染排放越少,污染排放的负面影响也越小.不过,消费比重对污染排放负面影响不存在调节作用.

英文摘要:

      Based on the sample of data in different regions from 1998 to 2009, the negative impacts of pollution emission on economic development and the adjustment of the macro economic structure to the economic development were examined by using simultaneous equations model in this paper. It was founded that economic development and pollution emission infl uenced each other, economic structure and pollution emission also infl uenced each other. The improvement of current economic development level will inevitably lead to the increase of pollution emission. However, the negative effect of current pollution emission increasement on the economic development is lagged. Investment and exports can moderate the negative impacts of pollution emission, that is, the higher the proportion of the investment, the lower the proportion of exports, the less of the pollution emission caused by the current economic development, so the less negative impacts of pollution emission. However, the consumption proportion does not have a moderate effect on the negative impacts of pollution emission.