基于超效率DEA模型的中国能源效率测算与实证研究

Measurement and Empirical Research on Energy Effi ciency of China Based on Super-Effi ciency DEA Model

中文关键词:  能源效率  产业结构  技术进步

英文关键词:energy effi ciency  industrial structure  technical progress

中文摘要:

      随着城市化和工业化进程的加快,在能源需求量日益扩大的同时,二氧化碳排放量也快速增长,中国面临着越来越严峻的能源和环境形势。为了实现“十二五”规划节能减排目标及2030 年实现碳峰值的承诺,提高能源效率和碳减排成为了我国经济发展的当务之急。本文选取与能源效率存在密切关系的产业结构、技术进步、能源消费结构和经济发展水平作为主要影响因素,基于超效率DEA 模型对中国1980-2011 年的能源效率进行了测算,利用VEC 模型分析发现能源效率与产业结构、技术进步、能源消费结构和经济发展水平之间存在长期的协整关系;同时,在此基础上利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解模型就我国能源效率与其影响因素之间的短期动态关系作进一步分析,结果显示,产业结构、能源消费结构、技术进步对能源效率得提升有积极的正效应,而经济发展水平对其有一定的负面影响,从各因素对能源效率的贡献百分比来看, 产业结构比例对能源效率的贡献最大, 然后依次是经济发展水平、能源消费结构和技术进步。最后结合以上分析,从加大研发收入、调整产业结构、优化能源消费结构、提升技术利用水平、发展清洁能源技术、推广新能源使用与技术扩散能方面提出了可行性建议与对策。

英文摘要:

      With the speeding up of urbanization and industrialization process, energy demand and carbon emissions are growing rapidly, and China is facing more and more serious energy and environmental situation. To realize the energy saving and emission reduction targets of the 12th Five-Year Plan and the promise of the peak value of carbon emission of China in 2030, China has been urged to improve energy effi ciency and reduce carbon emissions. Energy efficiency closely related factors as industrial structure, technical progress, energy consumption structure, and economic development level were chosen to calculate the energy effi ciency from 1980 to 2011 based on Super- Effi ciency DEA Model in this paper. An approach based on co-integrated VEC model showed that the long run cointegration relationship exists between previous four factors and energy efficiency. The paper also examined the dynamic relationship between energy efficiency and its influencing factors with the impulse response function and variance decomposition.We found that industrial structure, energy consumption structure and technical progress have great positive influence on China's energy efficiency. Nevertheless, economic development level produced negative effects. At last, suggestions and countermeasures were put forward as follows: increasing research income, adjusting the industrial structure, optimizing the structure of energy consumption, improving the utilization level of technology and developing clean energy technology, promoting ne w energy and technology diffusion.