基于LMDI模型的乌鲁木齐工业废气排放影响因素研究

Research on Factors of Industrial Waste Gas Emissions in Urumqi Based on LMDI Methods

中文关键词:  废气排放  能源消耗  LMDI  规模效应  结构效应  技术效应

英文关键词:waste gas emissions  energy consumption  LDMI  scale effect  structural effect  technical effect

中文摘要:

      本文运用对数平均的LMDI 分解模型,选取工业SO₂、工业烟(粉)尘排放量作为污染物指标,将2006—2013 年,乌鲁木齐工业废气排放量影响因素分解为规模效应、结构效应、技术效应,考虑到技术效应机制的复杂性,进一步将技术效应细化为污染治理效应和清洁技术效应。研究结果表明:规模效应和结构效应增加乌鲁木齐工业废气排放,其中规模效应对工业废气排放量贡献率由2007 年的119.10%增加到2013 年的263.03%,结构效应对工业废气排放量的增加也起到一定的促进作用,但影响效果远低于规模效应,年贡献率均低于10%,技术效应阻碍工业废气排放的增加,贡献率由2007 年的-19.86%增加到2013 年的-172.50%。制造业和电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业废气排放量占工业废气排放总量的70% 左右,是乌鲁木齐工业废气污染的主要行业。清洁技术效应对SO₂ 的减排起促进作用,是阻碍工业SO₂ 排放量增加的主要因素。污染治理效应是工业烟(粉)尘的减排主要因素,说明目前乌鲁木齐工业烟(粉)尘的减排依赖于排放后的治理。

英文摘要:

      Factors affecting the emissions of industrial waste gas in Urumqi from 2006 to 2013 were decomposed into scale effect, structural effect, technical effect by the method of Loganithmic Mean weight Divisia Index (LMDI), in which SO₂ and smoke (powder) dust emissions from industry were selected as pollutant indicators. Considering the complexity of the mechanism of technical effect, it was further refi ned to pollution control effect and clean technology effect. Results showed that scale effect and structural effect increased the emissions of industrial waste gas in Urumqi with the main contribution from scale effect, the contribution rate of which increased from 119.10% in 2007 to 263.03% in 2013. The structural effect also promoted the increase of industrial waste gas emissions with contribution rates lower than 10%, which was far lower than the scale effect. The technical effect stunted the increase of industrial waste gas emissions, with contribution rate changing from -19.86% in 2007 to -172.50% in 2013. Manufacturing, electricity, gas and water production supply sector industries were the major industries of waste gas pollution in Urumqi, accounting for 70% of total industrial emissions. Clean technology effect was the main factor that stunted the increase of industrial SO₂ emissions by promoting SO₂ emission reduction. Pollution control effect was the main factor affected the emission reduction of industrial smoke (dust), indicating that the emission reduction of industrial smoke (dust) in Urumqi depended on the governance of the emission.