《大气污染防治行动计划》实施的投融资需求及影响评估

Investment Demand and Impacts of Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan in China

中文关键词:  大气污染防治行动计划  政策评估  投入产出分析  环境政策  环境管理

英文关键词:Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan  policy assessment  Input-output analysis  environmental policy  environmental management

中文摘要:

      当前我国大气污染形势严峻,严重损害人民群众身体健康,影响社会和谐稳定。为切实改善空气质量,国务院于2013年9月印发了《大气污染防治行动计划》(简称《行动计划》)。本研究测算了实施该行动计划所需投入资金,并定量评估了可能给中国带来的社会、经济、健康等影响。结果表明,《大气污染防治行动计划》直接投资共计需要资金约1.84万亿元,其中优化能源结构、移动源污染防治、工业企业污染治理、面源污染治理的投资需求约分别为2844亿元、14 067.66亿元、915.44亿元和615.72亿元;2017年全国因实施《大气污染防治行动计划》而减少的慢性死亡人数平均约为11.06万人,占人口总数的0.15‰,各地损失寿命年限均有所下降,即寿命有延长趋势;带来的社会经济影响为正效应,在2013-2017年,计划的实施将拉动我国GDP增长约20 403.01亿元,增加就业岗位约291.13万个。本研究对政策评估研究及未来大气污染治理发展方向具有重要参考价值。

英文摘要:

      Nowadays,China is facing severe air pollution,which has seriously damaged public health and social impacts.To improve the air quality,the State Council issued the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan in September 2013.This study examined the potential plan implementation cost and evaluated the associated impact son public health,economy,and society.The results show that the total investment of implementing Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan is about 1.84 trillion Yuan,and within it the investment of optimizing energy sources,trans portation pollutioncontrol,industrial pollutionmitigation,and non-point source pollution prevention are 284.4,1406.77,284.4 and 61.572 billion Yuan,respectively.In 2017,the chronicdeath toll will reduce 110,663 people,because of the implementation of the action plan,accounting for 0.15‰ of the total population.In addition,the years of the loss of life will be reduced,which indicated that the average life span would be extended.Thesocio-economiceffects arepositive,and the implementation of the action plancan stimulate the growth of national GDP by an additional 2040.301 billion Yuan and the growth of employment by 2.91 million during the five years (2013-2017).Our findings is helpful to the policy analysis and the future design of air pollution preventionpolicy.