城市环境安全模糊综合评价方法研究

Research of Urban Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method for Environment Security

中文关键词:  北京市  层次分析法  灰色聚类  环境安全

英文关键词:Beijing  AHP  gray cluster analysis  environment security

中文摘要:

      北京作为我国的首都、环境保护的首善之区,在环境问题上应该,也必须是安全的。但实际上,北京大气污染、水体污染日益加剧,水资源紧张,环境安全形势严峻。本文根据2005-2014年十年环境污染统计数据,运用层次分析法、灰色聚类分析法对北京市城市环境安全进行了评价分析,结果表明,北京市城市环境安全度为6.3~6.89,属于较安全级别。十年来北京市环境安全状况呈好转趋势,环境安全度最低值出现在2006年,最高值出现在2011年,增幅9%。地表水的氨氮、BOD、高锰酸盐指数及大气污染中的PM₁₀污染相对严重。PM₁₀安全度指数2005-2007年偏低,由于奥运减排措施的持续作用及沙尘影响减弱,2006-2013年安全度逐年增高,2014年安全度略有下降,但整体呈好转趋势。北京市地表水污染仍为有机污染型,2005-2014年的十年间,通过结构减排、工程减排、监管减排等措施,地表水有机污染得到很大改善,各项污染物浓度总体呈下降趋势。总体而言,环境空气质量仍未达标,水环境污染仍较突出,应针对评价结果加大相应的环境治理措施,确保首都环境安全。

英文摘要:

      As the capital of China,the environment of Beijing should and must be safe.However,serious air pollution,shortage of water resources,increasing water pollution aggravates the situation.Based on the data of environmental statistic from 2005 to 2014 in Beijing,the article evaluated urban environment safety by using AHP and gray cluster analysis method.Results show that the urban environment safety degree changed between 6.3 to 6.89,at the third security levels,the environmental safety state was positive tendency as a whole,the lowest and highest environmental safety index set in 2006 and 2011,expanded by 9%;Comparing with other contaminations,content of ammonia nitrogen,BOD,CODMn in surface water and inhalable particle matter (PM₁₀) was relatively high which much more attention should be paid to.The safety index of PM 10 was relatively lower from 2005 to 2007,as adoption of pollution cutbacks during the Olympics and weak sandstorms,it was increased year by year from 2006 to 2013,though slight recovery in 2014;the concentration of organic contaminants was the chief pollutant of surface water pollution in Beijing,permanganate index,five days'biochemical oxygen demand and ammonia nitrogen had been falling because of industrial structure-emission reduction,project-emission reduction,supervision-emission reduction during the past ten years.In general,air pollution and water pollution are the most important environmental safety problem in Beijing,appropriate measures should be taken to insure a safer human environment.