丝绸之路经济带资源环境成本及生态负荷强度的时空演变分析

Analysis of the Spatial and Temporal Evolution about Environmental Cost and Ecological Load Intensity of Silk Road Economic Belt

中文关键词:  丝绸之路经济带  资源环境成本  生态负荷强度  时空演变  国际比较

英文关键词:Silk Road Economic Belt  resources and environmental costs  ecological load intensity  spatial and temporal evolution  international comparison

中文摘要:

      为了科学地评价丝绸之路经济带生态系统对经济与社会发展的服务支撑能力，本研究引入生态系统服务理论，构建资源环境成本及绿色GDP核算、生态负荷强度模型，计算出丝绸之路经济带辐射国家2005—2012年的资源环境成本、生态负荷强度，并在此基础上利用探索性空间数据分析方法，对2005年以来丝绸之路经济带的生态负荷强度随时间演变的趋势及其空间分布特征进行分析和探讨（数据获取难易程度，仅分析了部分带内国家）。结果表明：在研究时段内，带内国家或地区的资源环境成本由2005年的675.02×10⁸元攀升至1 178.51×10⁸元（2005年可比价），生态负荷强度由0.3369下降到0.2307；丝绸之路经济带生态负荷强度呈现出由欧洲经济圈向中国西北地区集聚的空间分布特征，其中中亚及中国西北地区为高-高集聚区、欧洲经济圈为低-低集聚区；这种西、东集聚现象的显著性在研究时段内逐渐减弱，且区域生态效益或经济效益持续向周边溢出。

英文摘要:

      In order to scientifically evaluate the silk road economic belt ecosystem service support ability for economic and social development, we introduced the theory of ecosystem services, built green GDP accounting, resource environmental cost and ecological load intensity model, calculated the silk road economic belt radiation national's resource-environment cost and the intensity of ecological load from 2005 to 2012. And then by using exploratory spatial data analysis method, the temporal evolution trend and spatial distribution characteristics of ecological load intensity in silk road economic belt since 2005 (only parts of countries due to the degree of data acquisition) were analyzed and discussed. The results showed that during the study period, the national or regional resource-environment cost from 675.02×10⁸ RMB in 2005 climbed to 1178.51×10⁸ RMB (2005 comparable price), ecological load intensity dropped from 0.3369 to 0.2307. The ecological load intensity of the Silk Road Economic Belt agglomerated from the European economic circle to the northwest China, which northwest China and central Asian as high-high agglomeration and European economic circle as the low - low agglomeration. The significance of the west and the east agglomeration phenomenon is gradually decreased during the study period, and regional ecological or economic benefit continues to overflow.