基于利益相关群体的碳减排策略与潜力分析——以苏州市为例

Stakeholder-based Carbon Mitigation Strategy and Potential Analysis in Suzhou City, China

中文关键词:  碳排放  情景分析  利益群体  减排潜力

英文关键词:carbon emissions  scenario analysis  interest groups  mitigation potential

中文摘要:

      本研究基于苏州市低碳试点工作实施方案，识别了苏州市重点减排领域，采用国家温室气体排放清单，估算了苏州"十二五"（2011—2015）期间碳排放量，并利用情景分析法预测了2016—2025年基准情景和综合减排情景碳排放趋势，分析了各重点排放领域减排贡献率。在此基础上，将减排策略按照自愿、监管、自愿与监管相结合的方式分别从不同利益相关群体进行梳理，分析不同群体减排潜力。结果表明：① 2015年，苏州市碳排放量约为2.35亿吨，2011—2015年，重点排放领域为工业能源消耗、建筑、交通、电力行业。②采用综合减排方案能在2020年左右达到峰值，之后缓慢下降，但交通部门碳排放仍有一定增加。③碳减排策略由多个利益相关群体共同作用产生减排贡献。对苏州市低碳试点方案的分析表明，当地政策制定者的减排贡献最高，其后是基础设施建设者和运营者，最后是基础设施使用者。

英文摘要:

      Based on content analysis of Low Carbon Pilot Implementation Plan in Suzhou city, this study identifies key mitigation fields and estimates their carbon emissions during 2011-2015, as well as predicts carbon emission trend in 2016-2025 within different scenarios, and then analyzes their contribution rate on carbon mitigation. Carbon mitigation strategies are sorted from stakeholders involved (policy makers, infrastructure designers and operators, infrastructure users). Results show that:① In 2015, carbon emission in Suzhou reached 235 million tons. The key emission sectors included industrial energy consumption, building, transportation and power sector. ② During 2011-2020, the overall carbon emission is rising, within both high and low comprehensive carbon mitigation scenarios. Carbon emission achieves the peak around 2020, and keeps a slow downward trend during 2020-2025. Transportation is a rapidly growing sector in carbon emission during 2015-2025. ③ Carbon mitigation strategies are usually not independent of one stakeholder, but involve joint actions of multiple social roles.