我国水资源管理的经济政策耦合效果仿真研究

Effects of Economic Policy Coupling on Water Resource Management in China Based on the Simulation Technology

中文关键词:  水政策耦合  水资源管理  仿真技术  政策效果  区域对比

英文关键词:water resources policy coupling  water resource management  simulation technology  policy effect  regional correlation

中文摘要:

      水资源管理的经济政策效果模拟是从政策理论到政策实践的关键步骤，让决策者感知政策效果的方向和影响程度，才能更好地促进政策实践转化。本研究引入系统动力学方法，构建水资源经济政策耦合机制下水资源系统动力学（SD）模型，将我国划分为三种类型区域（干旱地区、丰水地区和过渡地区），进行三类四种水资源管理经济政策（水资源有偿使用，水价政策和水权政策；水污染收费，排污收费政策；水生态保护，水生态保护补偿政策）的耦合仿真实证研究。以我国水资源管理政策设计为目标，进行不同水管理政策耦合的生态经济效果仿真和效果定量评价，结果发现：干旱地区有偿使用的经济政策是目前经济水平下效果最好的；过渡地区有偿使用结合污水排放收费政策效果是最好的；而丰水地区必须同时实施水资源有偿使用和水污染收费两类经济政策。

英文摘要:

      The effect simulation of economic policy in water resource management is a key step from policy theory to policy practice, it lets the decision maker feel the direction and impact of policy effect, which will better promote the transition of policy practice. This research develops a water resource SD model with the coupling mechanism of fiscal and taxation policy using system dynamics method, and divides China into three types of area, which are less water area, water area and middle region, according to the annual precipitation. Four types of water policies including water resources paid use policy, water rights policy, water pollution rights policy and compensation policy for water environmental damage are used for empirical study of coupled simulation. The results show that in the same study area, the effect of water policy is different. Taking less water area as an example, the effect of water resources paid use policy is better than the water right policy or the water pollution rights policy for a single policy; the effect of combination policy of water resources paid use policy, water right policy and water pollution rights policy, is better than one single policy; the effect of combination policy for water resources paid use policy and water right trading policy, is better than water resources paid use policy and water pollution rights policy.In the same policies, there are different effect in different study area. For combination policy of water resources paid use policy and water right policy,the effect in less water area is better than in water area. However, for combination policy of water resources paid use policy and water pollution rights policy, the best effect is in the water area; for combination policy of water resources paid use policy, water right policy and water pollution rights policy, the best effect is in the middle region.Under the background of different areas, the best combination water resources policy is different. So appropriate water policy coupling policy should be designed to different regions.