能源转型影响中国经济增长潜力的模拟研究——基于“弱可持续性”视角

The Effects of Energy Transition on Economic Growth Potential in China—A Perspective of Weak Sustainability

中文关键词:  能源转型  经济增长潜力  真实储蓄量  “刹车”效应

英文关键词:energy transition  economic growth potential  genuine savings  braking effect

中文摘要:

      能源需求的高增长和化石能源的高占比导致了日益严峻的环境退化问题。均衡状态下，用于环境治理的资本投入实质上是对储蓄的一种扣除，这会降低生产性资本总量的积累速度，导致经济增长潜力下滑。本文构建了一个包含能源转型与真实储蓄量的DSGE模型，结合最新相关文献和中国经济数据校准模型，模拟研究了能源转型对中国经济增长潜力的影响以及相关政策效应。结论表明：能源转型发挥出一种"刹车"效应，将逐渐减缓经济增长潜力的下滑趋势；能源转型的持续推进，有望在2030年左右逆转其趋势；能源转型相关政策会改变"刹车"期的时长和弱化经济潜力的下滑程度。政策启示方面，能源转型是扭转经济增长潜力下滑趋势的有效手段，政府可通过政策"组合拳"的方式来干预能源转型过程，将有助于缩短"刹车"期和相对增强经济增长潜力。

英文摘要:

      The rapid growth of energy consumption with high proportion of fossil fuels has resulted in serious environmental problems. As capital is used to deal with the problems, the savings or the accumulated productive capitals are reduced, and consequently the potential of economic growth is undermined. This study analyzed the effects of energy transition and related policies on the economic growth potential of China using a DSGE model, in which energy transition was modeled and genuine savings are estimated. The results showed that energy transition can slow down the declining rate of economic growth potential, or has a "braking" effect; as energy transition is further advanced, it is expected that the declining trend of economic growth potential will be reversed by 2030; and policies supporting energy transition have effects on the duration of the braking effect and can reduce the declining rate of economic growth potential. Therefore, energy transition is an effective measure for dealing with the decline of economic growth potential, and the government can optimize the process of energy transition by implementing an effective policy mix to shorten the "braking effect" period and enhance the economic growth potential.