对燃油征税的区域能源环境影响研究：以中国为例

Impacts of Taxing Fuel on Regional Energy Environment: A Case of China

中文关键词:  燃油税  碳税  燃油消费  排放  自回归分布滞后模型

英文关键词:fuel tax  carbon tax  fuel consumption  emission  Autoregressive-Distributed Lag model

中文摘要:

      控制汽柴油消费对中国的能源安全和环境保护有着重要意义。燃油税和碳税是中国近期两种主要的已经或可能施加于燃油的税收政策。以自回归分布滞后模型为核心，本研究构建了一个燃油税和碳税的区域能源环境影响评估模型。利用模型估计了我国的燃油需求价格弹性，测算了燃油需求响应，计算了在相同CO₂减排目标下，提高汽油消费税、提高柴油消费税、引入碳税三种政策情景下各省份预计产生的节能效应、减排效应和税收效益。研究结果显示，在相同的CO₂减排目标下，第一，在不同情景下，各省份节能程度差异均有限，但节能数量均体现出区域匹配性，燃油消费越多的省份，节能数量一般越多，且提高汽油消费税的全国节能总量最大；第二，在引入碳税情景下，各省份CO₂减排比例差异最小；第三，在全国层面，三种政策情景中空气污染物（PM_2.5和NO_x和SO₂）减排数量均为提高汽油消费税 > 引入碳税 > 提高柴油消费税，但在提高柴油消费税情景下，有4/5的省份预计PM_2.5排放减少程度超过14%。除此之外，提高汽油消费税的税收收益最大。

英文摘要:

      Controlling gasoline and diesel consumption is of great significance to China's energy security and environmental protection. The fuel tax and carbon tax are two of the most recent tax policies in China that have been or may be applied to fuel. Taking the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ADL) model as the core, this study constructs a regional energy environmental impact assessment model for fuel tax and carbon tax. The model is used to estimate the price elasticity of fuel demand in China, calculate the fuel demand response, and calculate the expected energy-saving effects, emission reduction effects and tax benefits of the provinces under the same CO₂ emission reduction targets. There are three scenarios designed in this study:increasing gasoline consumption tax, increasing diesel consumption tax and introducing carbon tax. The results show that under the same CO₂ emission reduction targets, first, in different scenarios, the differences in energy-saving ratio are limited, but the energy-saving quantity reflects regional matching. The more fuel consumption of province, the more energy saving in general. And the national energy-saving quantity is the largest in the scenario of increasing gasoline consumption tax. Second, under the introduction of carbon tax scenario, the difference in CO₂ emission reduction ratio between provinces is the smallest. Third, at the national level, the orders of air pollutants (PM_2.5, NO_x and SO₂) reductions in the three policy scenarios are the same:increasing gasoline tax > introducing carbon tax > increasing diesel tax, but in the case of increasing diesel tax, 4/5 provinces are expected to reduce PM_2.5 emissions by more than 14%. In addition, the tax revenue for increasing gasoline tax is the largest.