区域生态安全演化与绿色经济发展关系实证研究——以辽宁省为例

The Empirical Study of Developing Relationship Between Regional Ecological Security Evolution and Green Economy—Taking the Case of Liaoning

中文关键词:  DPESAR框架  生态安全  绿色经济发展  演化状态  模型与优化

英文关键词:DPESAR framework  ecological security  green economic development  evolution status  model and optimization

中文摘要:

      本文基于DPESAR框架的生态安全指标体系，选择辽宁省1995-2017年的面板数据，应用SPSS17.0和EViews6.0软件，建立生态安全演化与绿色经济发展关系的结构模型，研究二级指标和三级指标间的相互关系，识别其影响绿色经济发展的症结，进而构建最优控制模型，探讨二者之间的演化关系，依据辽宁省"十三五"发展规划的指标要求，模拟并预测辽宁省到2022年的生态安全与绿色经济发展关系的理想演化状态。结果显示：敏感指标的下降会造成生态安全的恶化。但是，通过政府的调控，消除暴露指标C（k）通过压力指标带来的滞后影响可以遏制生态环境的恶化。因此，调整后的生态安全影响因子对绿色经济发展有巨大的促进作用，从而可以为辽宁省"十三五"的绿色经济发展提供决策依据。

英文摘要:

      Based on the framework of DPESAR indicator system, the structural model for studying the developing relationship between ecological security evolution and green economy is established, by using SPSS 17.0 and Eviews 6.0 software with the panel data of Liaoning Province from 1995 to 2017, to analyze the relationship between the second class indicators and the third class indicators, identify the issues which have impact on the green economy development; and then construct the optimal controlling model to identify its relationship. According to the needs of Liaoning in the 13th Five-Year period, the local ideal evolution status of the ecological security and green economy development until 2022 is simulated and predicted. The result shows that the decline of sensitive indicators will lead to deterioration of ecological security. However, through government regulation, the elimination of exposure index C(k) can curb the deterioration of the ecological environment through the delayed impact of pressure index. So the adjusted impacted indicators of ecological security can make a great promotion to green economy development, which can be used for the guidance of green economy development in Liaoning Province.