碳减排目标的实现机制比较与选择——基于数量型与价格型减排工具的模拟

The Comparison and Selection of Realization Mechanism for Carbon Emission Reduction Goals: Based on Quantity-Based and Price-Based Emission Reduction Policy Tools Simulation

中文关键词:  碳减排目标  减排工具  碳交易  碳税  动态CGE模型

英文关键词:carbon emission reduction target  emission reduction tools  carbon trading  carbon tax  dynamic CGE model

中文摘要:

      基于2012年微观层面的社会核算矩阵（SAM）表，本文构建动态可计算的一般均衡（CGE）模型，分别设计碳交易和碳税情景加入该模型，模拟中国2012—2030年的宏观经济效应和部门结构效应。研究结果表明：就宏观效应来看，2030年碳交易和碳税情景的碳强度分别比基准情景下降了24.24%和26.487%，分别完成碳减排目标的55.052%和59.349%；碳交易情景下消费、投资、出口和进口出现较大波动，碳税情景下这些指标小幅上涨。就部门经济效应来看，能源部门受政策情景影响最大，其次是制造业部门，其他部门受到的影响较小；碳交易情景对各部门增加值有抑制作用，并对原油和天然气部门的消费产生较大冲击。就部门减排效应来看，制造业部门的减排效应较显著；碳税情景的减排效应优于碳交易情景。总体而言，单一实施碳交易或碳税政策，不能完全实现碳减排目标，碳税政策相对温和，可以考虑两种减排政策配合实施，以减缓对经济系统冲击，并实现碳减排目标。

英文摘要:

      Based on the SAM table at micro-level in 2012, this study constructs a dynamic CGE model, adding carbon trading and carbon tax into this model, and then simulates macroeconomic effects and sectorial structure effects from 2012 to 2030 in China. There are three research results indicated in this paper. Firstly, from the macro-effect perspective, carbon intensity of carbon trading and carbon tax will respectively decrease by 24.24% and 26.487% compared with the baseline, which will respectively complete 55.052% and 59.349% of carbon emission reduction goals in 2030. Consumption, investment, import and export under the carbon trading scenario are greatly fluctuated, but these macroeconomic indexes are slightly increased under the carbon tax scenario. Secondly, in terms of the economic effect departments, the energy department is most affected by carbon emission reduction, followed by manufacturing department. However, other departments are affected slightly. The carbon trading scenario has restrained the added value of various departments, which has greatly impacted on the consumption of the crude oil and natural gas sectors. Thirdly, as for sectoral emission reduction effect, the emission reduction effect of manufacturing department is significant. Moreover, the emission reduction effect of carbon tax is superior to that of carbon trading. In a word, the single implementation of carbon trading or that of carbon tax policy cannot complete carbon emission reduction target. Besides, carbon tax policy is also relatively mild. So, two emission reduction policies are implemented interactively,which will reduce the impact on the economic system and achieve carbon emission reduction target.