中国城市碳达峰趋势的聚类分析

Cluster Analysis of Carbon Emissions Peaking Trends in Chinese Cities

中文关键词:  地级城市  碳排放达峰趋势  聚类分析

英文关键词:prefecture-level cities  carbon emissions peaking trend  cluster analysis

中文摘要:

      中国在2020年9月提出2060年碳中和目标，并提出加快落实2030年国家碳达峰任务。考虑到城市在国家碳减排工作中的重要使命和极大潜力，以及其碳排放在总量、结构、行动进展和趋势上存在的显著差异，深入认识中国城市碳达峰趋势的类型特征，对地方政府设计和开展差异化达峰行动具有重要意义。本文综合考虑影响城市碳达峰趋势的静态因素和动态因素，采用蒙特卡洛方法与K均值聚类算法，对中国286个样本城市的达峰趋势进行了分类分析。结果表明，中国城市的达峰类型可以划分为5类，根据其特点可概括为低碳潜力型城市、低碳示范型城市、人口流失型城市、资源依赖型城市和传统工业转型期城市。其中，低碳潜力型城市和传统工业转型期城市是决定我国能否落实2030年达峰行动的关键。最后，针对不同类型城市，本文对城市碳达峰的目标设计和行动重点提出了切实建议。

英文摘要:

      In September 2020, China has pledged to reach carbon neutral by 2060 and proposed to implement the national carbon emission peak action efficiently by 2030. Fulfilling the national emission peak target has always been an important mission for Chinese cities, which have great potential for reducing emissions. Meanwhile, there are significant differences for Chinese cities in the total amount, structure, and trends of their carbon emissions and their progress on carbon reductions. Therefore, it is vital to analyze typology characteristics of the trends of peaking carbon emission in Chinese cities to provide insights for local governments to set and conduct differentiated action plans for peaking emissions. In this paper, trends of peaking CO₂ emissions of 286 prefecture-level cities in China are classified based on the static and dynamic factors that affect cities' carbon emissions and their trends by using the Monte-Carlo method and K-means clustering algorithm. The results show that Chinese cities can be divided into five types and their characteristics are summarized as follows:potential low-carbon cities, leading low-carbon cities, industrial restructuring cities, resource-dependent cities, and depopulated cities. Potential low-carbon cities and industrial restructuring cities play key roles in determining the achievement of the national CO₂ emissions peak target before 2030. This paper provides useful suggestions for five different city types in China on setting targets and identifying key tasks of peaking carbon emissions.