面向管理决策的标准化流域水环境模型评估验证技术框架研究

Standardized Framework of Watershed Model Evaluation for Decision Making

中文关键词:  环境模型  流域管理  模型评估验证  技术框架

英文关键词:environmental model  watershed management  model evaluation  technical framework

中文摘要:

      不规范的流域水环境模型应用增加了决策风险。从过程管理的角度来看，我国尚未针对流域水环境模型的评估与验证建立标准化的技术流程，模型标准化应用水平较低。在总结已有研究成果以及先进管理经验的基础上，本文构建了标准化的流域水环境模型评估验证技术框架，提出了对应用于流域水环境管理决策的模型开展评估验证的基本原则、工作流程和技术要求，并通过案例研究验证了技术框架的可行性。技术框架引入了结构合理性评估、参数识别与灵敏度分析、模拟效果评估、不确定性分析等模型评估验证的关键技术，结合不同的模型类型、决策功能等特征给出了原则性的技术要求和应用建议。研究成果充分考虑了我国的环境管理需求，与现阶段环境模拟技术要求、环境监测能力和数据条件相适应，在理论探讨和技术实现层面具备明确的可行性，将促进我国流域水环境模型的规范化、标准化和本地化应用。

英文摘要:

      Nonstandard application of environmental models for watershed management increases the decision-making risk. From the perspective of process management, there is no standardized technical process for the evaluation and verification of environment models for watershed management in China. Based on a detailed review of research results and advanced management experience, a standardized technical framework for evaluation and verification of environment models was constructed and verified by a case study, which defined the basic principles, work processes and technical requirements for the model used in the decision-making of watershed management. This framework introduced key technologies for model evaluation and verification such as structural rationality assessment, parameter identification, sensitivity analysis, performance measures and uncertainty analysis, and provided principled technical requirements and application suggestions for varied model types, decision-making functions. Research results fully consider environmental management needs, and are compatible with current environmental simulation technical requirements, environmental monitoring capabilities, and data conditions, which will promote the normalization, standardization and localization of environmental model application for watershed management.