后疫情重建阶段的碳排放趋势与减排策略研究

China's CO2 Emission Trends and Mitigation Strategy in the Post COVID-19 Era

中文关键词:  新冠肺炎疫情  碳达峰  财政刺激政策  行业低碳转型

英文关键词:epidemic  Carbon Peak  fiscal stimuli  sectoral low-carbon transformation

中文摘要:

      本研究利用北京理工大学最新研发的环境经济系统多主体模型，实现了对中国不同部门CO₂排放的中短期高精度模拟，研究在后疫情重建阶段中国财政刺激政策以及行业减排路径对碳排放与经济增长的影响。结果表明，由于“新基建”等疫后重建活动较多针对受疫情直接影响的人类活动高度聚集部门，若财政刺激政策与疫情防控在时间上保持同步，则前者对CO₂排放的增加效果不超过0.4%。各行业减排组合情景下CO₂排放增长率在2021年中位值为4.7%，之后直到“十五五”初期，各情景中位值在1.0%~1.4%。碳排放增长率具体取决于行业的低碳转型速度。相对于“十四五”单位经济产出CO₂排放降低18%的目标，各行业若减碳速度加倍，对降低中国碳排放贡献程度由高到低依次为电力、钢铁、水泥、交通及石化。仅在电力行业加速减碳的各情景下，中国可以在“十四五”至“十五五”初期将CO₂排放维持在稳定水平。与此同时，随着疫情减弱和经济系统中各主体适应性增强，中国GDP将维持平稳增长。上述结果表明，将疫后经济重建与绿色转型相结合，有望在实现经济持续增长的同时，使碳排放按时甚至提前达峰。

英文摘要:

      The impacts of fiscal stimuli and sectoral decarbonization strategies on China's CO₂ emissions and economic growth in the post COVID-19 era are analyzed in this study, using a newly developed multi-agent coupled environment-economy model, Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Unfolding Economic Scenarios (CLUES). Stimulation results show that China's fiscal stimuli has limited impacts (i.e., no more than 0.4%) on CO₂ emissions, since they focus on activities such as the "New Infrastructure Construction" initiative that feature relatively intense human interactions and are therefore highly impacted by the pandemic. The inter-scenario median of CO₂ emission growth rates in 2021 is 4.7%. After that, until the year 2026 or the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan, the median growth rate remains in the range of 1.0%-1.4%. Among scenarios, the emission growth rate depends on the speeds of sectoral decarbonization. When implementing stronger decarbonization plan than the 18% CO₂ emission decrease for unitary economic output as dictated in the 14th Five-Year Plan, the sectors with the largest contributions are ranked as follows:power, steel, cement, transportation, petrochemicals. Only when the power sector reduces CO₂ emissions faster than in the 14th Five-Year Plan, China can maintain CO₂ emissions at a stable level from the 14th Five-Year Plan to the early stage of the 15th Five-Year Plan. Meanwhile, China will achieve stable yearly economic growth (at least 5% in most scenarios), as the pandemic weakens and economic agents adapt to new environments. To achieve the "2030 Carbon Peak" goal in time, China needs to leverage synergies between the post COVID-19 recovery and low-carbon transformation.