中国城市空气污染对人口流动的推拉效应研究

Push-Pull Effect of Urban Air Pollution on Population Flow in China

中文关键词:  空气污染  人口流动  推拉效应  门槛模型  调节作用

英文关键词:air pollution  population flow  push-pull effect  threshold model  regulatory effect

中文摘要:

      传统城市发展理论认为，空气污染会导致人口流出。然而，本文以城市雾霾数据为例，分类别构建固定效应模型后发现，空气污染会促进百强城市的人口净流入（形成拉力效应），非百强城市的人口净流出（形成推力效应）。拉力效应与传统的城市发展理论不符。本文认为，当城市间收入差距过大时，流入居民会形成高水平的收入预期，促使其愿意承受更严重的空气污染，该预期可量化为空气污染的拉力效应。据此进一步研究收入水平对推拉效应的调节作用发现，随着收入水平上升，其能放大百强城市的拉力效应和非百强城市的推力效应，即进一步促进百强城市的人口净流入和非百强城市的人口净流出。在此基础上，本文对百强城市和非百强城市分别提出政策建议，以期能为我国区域协调发展、城镇化科学转型提供理论支持。

英文摘要:

      According to the traditional urban development theory, air pollution will lead to population outflow. However, taking urban haze data as an example, this paper constructs a fixed effect model by category and finds that air pollution promotes the net inflow of population in the top 100 cities (forming a pull effect) and the net outflow of population in non-top 100 cities (forming a push effect). The pull effect is not consistent with the traditional theory of urban development. This paper argues that:when the income gap between cities is too large, the inflow of residents will form a high level of income expectations, which makes them willing to bear greater air pollution. This expectation is quantified in the pull effect of air pollution. It is found that with the increase of income level, it can amplify the pull effect of top 100 cities and the push effect of non-top 100 cities. That is to further promote the net inflow of population in the top 100 cities and the net outflow of population in the non-top 100 cities, and put forward policy suggestions for the top 100 cities and the non-top 100 cities respectively.