基于系统动力学的中国绿色发展政策仿真研究

Simulation of China's Green Development Policy Based on System Dynamics

中文关键词:  绿色发展  经济—资源—环境模型  系统动力学  政策模拟

英文关键词:green development  economy-resources-environment dynamic model  system dynamics  policy simulation

中文摘要:

      迅速的工业化进程为我国带来了巨大的经济增长，但其引发的资源和环境问题也日益突出，为应对这一严峻挑战，我国开始转变发展思路，推行绿色发展的发展理念。鉴于绿色发展过程中经济、资源、环境多系统之间存在复杂的相互作用，本研究采用系统动力学方法构建了中国经济—资源—环境的动态模型，并在模型有效性的基础上通过五种典型发展模式对政策进行仿真，进而对不同模式未来的发展趋势进行分析。结果表明：加大环保、能源设备更新投资，促进环境友好型、资源节约型社会建设，是我国实现绿色发展的必由之路；绿色发展过程中还要注重各系统间的协调发展，从整体层面制定绿色发展政策；同时，政府还要关注绿色发展的文化建设，促进公众生活和消费方式的绿色转型。

英文摘要:

      The rapid process of industrialization has brought great economic growth to China, the resource and environmental problems caused by it have become increasingly prominent. To face this challenge, China has transformed its development path and put forward the concept of green development. In view of the complex interaction among economy, environment, resource in the green development, this article adopts system dynamics method to construct the dynamic model of the Chinese economy-resources-environment. Based on the validity of the model, the article sets up five typical development models and uses them to simulate the possible policy. The results show that increasing investment in environmental protection, renewing energy equipment and promoting resource conservation are crucial for China to achieve green development. In addition, the coordinated development among different systems must be emphasized, and green development policies also should be formulated from the overall level. At the same time, the government should pay attention to the cultural construction of green development, and promote the green transformation of public life and consumption mode.