全球碳排放权分配与减排分担研究——基于环境约束与公平感受的视角

Research on Global Carbon Emission Rights Allocation and Emission Reduction Sharing—Based on the Perspective of Environmental Constraints and Perceived Fairness

中文关键词:  碳排放权  减排贡献  环境约束  公平感受

英文关键词:carbon emission rights  emission reduction contribution  environmental constraints  feeling fairness

中文摘要:

      排放权分配与减排分担始终是国际气候治理的关键问题，基于2℃环境约束与公平感受视角，利用多原则综合加权的分配方法，对全球排放权分配与减排分担展开研究，其结论如下：①在温升控制目标下，全球年均排放空间为177.42亿t；满足公平感受要求的全球年均配额为207.59亿t；以2015年实际排放为例，全球年均贡献减排与责任减排分别为30.17亿t、120.42亿t。②应用六大单一原则的排放权配额分配，其结果相差悬殊；发达国家和地区普遍偏好等产出原则，发展中国家和地区偏好排放责任原则；基于公平感受的综合加权分配方案降低了单一原则分配的规则“刚性”，能缓解分配中的“南北”失衡现象。③减排分担结果显示，分担集中于少数Ⅰ类地区的国家和地区，而大多数Ⅴ类地区的国家和地区减排分担不高，当前全球仍处于责任减排阶段。因此，排放权分配要在公平与可行、总量目标与个体标准之间寻求平衡，充分挖掘减排潜力；减排分担应坚持两个区分，减排目标实现按三阶段渐进。

英文摘要:

      Since the beginning of the establishment of IPCC, the allocation of emission rights and emission reduction sharing has always been the key issue of international climate governance. Based on the perspective of 2 ℃ environmental constraints and perceived fairness, the global emission right allocation and emission reduction sharing are researched by using a multi-principle comprehensive weighted distribution method. The conclusions are as follows: ①Under the control target of temperature rise, the global average annual emission budget is 17.742 billion tons; the global average annual total quota meeting the requirements of feeling fairness is 20.759 billion tons; taking the actual emissions in 2015 as an example, the global average annual contribution emission reduction and responsibility emission reduction are 3.017 billion tons and 12.042 billion tons respectively. ② According to the six single principles such as equality per person and equality per output, the distribution results are quite different. Developed countries generally prefer the principle of equal output, while developing countries prefer the principle of emission responsibility. The difference of comprehensive weighted distribution based on perceived fairness is smaller than that of single principle distribution, and the overall fairness is high. ③ The share of emission reduction is concentrated in a number of countries in Category I regions, and the possibility of emission reduction in 90 countries in Category V regions is not high; The current global emission reduction is still in the stage of responsibility based emission reduction. Therefore, the allocation of carbon emission rights should seek a balance between fairness and feasibility, total target and individual standards, and fully tap the emission reduction potential through emission reduction sharing. The sharing of emission reduction should adhere to the distinction between responsibility and contribution, and the goal of emission reduction should be achieved gradually in three stages.