“双碳”目标下青岛高新区低碳发展路径研究

Study on the Low-Carbon Development Path of Qingdao National Hi-tech Industrial Development Zone in China under the Goal of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality

中文关键词:  工业园区  温室气体排放  碳达峰  碳中和  低碳发展路径

英文关键词:industrial park  greenhouse gas emissions  carbon peak  carbon neutrality  low-carbon development pat

中文摘要:

      工业园区是我国工业发展的重要载体和强大引擎，是实现碳达峰和碳中和目标的重要抓手。本文以青岛高新区为研究对象，编制了2016—2020年该园区的温室气体排放清单，通过情景分析探讨了其碳达峰路径，并为中国工业园区的低碳发展提出了低碳发展政策建议。研究显示，2016—2020年，青岛高新区碳排放总量从32.88万t增加至43.78万t，碳排放强度由0.47 t/万元降至0.36 t/万元。工业能耗是青岛高新区碳排放的最大贡献者，也是其实现碳达峰的关键部门。生活用能的碳排放占比逐年增大，是青岛高新区实现碳达峰的重要影响因素。通过优化能源消费结构、提升能源利用效率、推进集中供热设施、煤改气等举措，青岛高新区预计在2025年实现碳达峰，碳排放总量达到71.58万t，碳排放强度降至0.27 t/万元。我国需制定统一的工业园区温室气体排放核算方法，建立工业园区温室气体排放数据库，将碳达峰碳中和目标要求纳入工业园区经济社会发展中长期规划，充分挖掘能源及环境基础设施的减排潜力，促进我国工业园区低碳发展。

英文摘要:

      Industrial parks are an important carrier and powerful driving force for the industrial development of China, and a key breakthrough for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality. In this study, Qingdao National Hi-tech Industrial Development Zone (QNHIDZ) was taken as the research object. The greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventory of QNHIDZ from 2016 to 2020 was established, and the GHG emissions from 2021 to 2030 were project through scenario analysis to find a reasonable path to carbon peak. Policy recommendations were proposed for the low-carbon development of Chinese industrial parks. Results showed that the total GHG emissions of QNHIDZ increased from 328,800 tons to 437,800 tons from 2016 to 2020, and the emission intensity dropped from 0.47 to 0.36 tons per 10,000 yuan. Industrial energy consumption is the largest contributor to the emissions and a key sector to achieve carbon peak. The proportion of GHG emissions from domestic energy consumption is increasing, which will adversely affect the overall carbon peak. By optimizing energy consumption structure, improving energy utilization efficiency, and promoting coal-to-gas in centralized heating facilities, QNHIDZ is expected to achieve carbon peak in 2025, with a total GHG emissions of 715,800 tons and an emission intensity of 0.27 tons per 10,000 yuan. In order to promote low-carbon development of industrial parks, China needs to improve the current energy statistics system, formulate a unified accounting method system and establish a database for industrial parks’ GHG emissions, incorporate the requirements for carbon peak and carbon neutral target into the medium and long-term economic and social development planning of industrial parks, and fully exploit the emission reduction potential of energy and environmental infrastructure.