碳中和背景下欧盟碳边境调节机制对我国的影响及对策分析

Impact of EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on China in the Context of Carbon Neutrality and Its Countermeasures

中文关键词:  碳边境调节机制  碳达峰  碳中和  气候变化  中欧贸易  碳泄漏

英文关键词:carbon border adjustment mechanism  carbon dioxide braking  carbon neutrality  climate change  China-EU trade  carbon leakage

中文摘要:

      在全球碳中和的新形势下，欧盟委员会于2021年7月正式提出“碳边境调节机制”（CBAM）立法提案，并计划于2023年起实施。本文在总结立法提案关键要素的基础上，着重分析欧盟CBAM的合法性与合理性，研判可能对我国产生的潜在影响，并从国际国内层面提出对策建议。分析发现，欧盟采取“名义”碳市场的形式，初期将覆盖水泥、电力、化肥、钢铁和铝等5个行业，只核算产品生产过程的直接排放，暂不考虑间接排放，2023—2025年是过渡期，2026年开始正式实施。欧盟CBAM的合法性与合理性面临诸多挑战：不符合世界贸易组织国民待遇原则和最惠国待遇原则，但存在满足关税与贸易总协定例外条款的可能性；违反国际气候治理的共同但有区别的责任原则、公平原则和各自能力原则，也不符合公约关于国际贸易歧视或变相限制的条款；对解决碳泄漏问题和保护本土竞争力的作用有限；产品隐含碳核算和碳价确定是技术难点问题。影响评估发现，欧盟CBAM将使我国受影响部门的对欧出口总额降低11%～ 13%，出口成本增加1亿～ 3.05亿美元，其中约四分之三的成本将由钢铁行业承担，对贸易隐含碳的下降作用有待进一步考量；此外，欧盟CBAM将会影响多边国际气候谈判进程，也会对我国经济社会发展、国际贸易、产业转型、技术提升等方面产生间接影响。我国应在国际层面坚定在气候治理多边框架下解决碳泄露问题，探索提出中国方案；积极推进贸易自由化，提升我国贸易优势；加强中欧对话协商，避免CBAM成为中欧“绿色贸易壁垒”。在国内层面稳步加快全国碳排放权交易体系建设，夯实碳排放核算基础能力，加强科学研究与交流合作。

英文摘要:

      In the context of carbon neutrality worldwide, the European Commission formally proposed a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) legislation proposal in July 2021, and intends to implement in 2023. Based on summarizing the key elements of the legislation proposal, this study analyzes the legitimacy and rationality of the EU CBAM, assesses the potential impact on China, and put forward countermeasures from the international and domestic levels. EU CBAM will establish a “nominal” carbon market, which will initially cover five industries including cement, electricity, fertilizer, steel and aluminum. Only direct emissions will be accounted and indirect emissions will not be covered. 2023-2025 is a transition period and it will be officially implemented from 2026. The legitimacy and rationality analysis shows that the EU CBAM does not comply with WTO’s principles of national treatment and most favoured nation treatment, but it is possible to meet the GATT exception clauses. It violates the international climate change governance principles of common but differentiated responsibilities, fairness, and respective capabilities, as well as the Convention’s provisions on international trade discrimination or disguised restrictions. It has limited effect on solving the problem of carbon leakage and protecting local competitiveness. It also faces technical challenges such as products embodied carbon calculation and the determination of carbon prices. The impact assessment shows that the EU CBAM will reduce the export value of China’s covers sector to Europe by 11%～13%, and increase export costs by about 100-305 million US$, of which steel sector bear about three-quarters. Besides, the impact on embodied carbon emission of China’s export sector needs further consideration. Furthermore, it will directly affect the multilateral international climate change negotiations, and will have indirect impact on China’s economic and social development, international trade, industrial transformation, and technological upgrading. Therefore, internationally China should promote the negotiations on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement and put forward Chinese plan, actively promote trade liberalization and enhance trade advantages, strengthen China-EU dialogue and consultations to avoid CBAM from becoming a “green trade barrier” between China and Europe. Domestically, China should steadily accelerate the construction of the national carbon emission trading system, consolidate carbon emission accounting capacity, and strengthen scientific research and exchanges and cooperation.