钢铁行业超低排放政策实施的费用效益预评估研究

Cost-Benefits Pre-assessment of Ultra-low Emission Policies Implementation in the Steel Industry in China

中文关键词:  钢铁行业  超低排放  大气环境质量  费用效益分析

英文关键词:steel industry  ultra-low emission  air quality  cost-benefits analysis

中文摘要:

      对钢铁行业超低排放政策进行费用效益分析研究，可为政策的优化调整提供科学支撑。本文对“十四五”期间钢铁行业超低排放改造政策实施的费用、效益进行了预评估，建立了费用、效益与经济社会影响计量模型方法，对全国、重点区域及31个省（区、市）进行了计算分析。结果显示，2021—2025年实施钢铁行业超低排放改造投入的费用约为3392亿元，由于环境改善带来的健康效益约为10 043亿元，净效益为6651亿元，费效比为3.0，具有显著的外部经济性和可行性。政策实施预计可分别增加GDP、税收、居民收入约4206亿元、740亿元、1698亿元。建议对钢铁行业超低排放施行分区域、分工艺、分污染源差异化管理，对超低排放改造措施实行全周期综合评估其减排效益，建立健全钢铁行业超低排放改造技术方案更新机制。

英文摘要:

      The cost-benefit analysis of the ultra-low emissions policies in the steel industry can provide support scientific support for policy optimization and adjustment. This paper pre-assesses the costs and benefits of the implementation of the ultra-low emission transformation policy in the steel industry during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, establishes a cost, benefit and economic and social impact measurement model approach, and calculates and analyzes the whole country, key regions and 31 provinces and municipalities. The results show that the cost in the implementation of ultra-low emission transformation of the steel industry from 2021 to 2025 is about 339.2 billion yuan, with environmental health benefits of about 1004.3 billion yuan. The environmental and economic benefits of implementing the “Iron and Steel Low Emissions Policy” in China are significant, with a net benefit of 665.1 billion yuan and a costeffectiveness ratio of 3.0, indicating significant economic externality and feasibility of the policy. In terms of economic and social impact, GDP, tax revenue, resident income and job opportunities are predicted to rise by 420.6 billion yuan, 74 billion yuan, 169.8 billion yuan and 92,0000 additional jobs, respectively, as a result of the policy implementation. It is recommended to implement differentiated management of ultra-low emissions in the steel industry by region, process, and pollution source, implement a full-cycle comprehensive assessment of the emission reduction benefits of ultra-low emission transformation measures, and establish and improve the ultra-low emission transformation technology program update mechanism for the steel industry.