中国对外贸易的经济增加值—隐含碳排放失衡问题研究

Research on the Imbalance of Economic Value Added and Carbon Emission Embodied in China’s Foreign Trade

中文关键词:  中国对外贸易  双边贸易隐含排放分析模型  贸易增加值  贸易隐含碳排放  贸易碳生产率  贸易失衡度

英文关键词:China’s foreign trade  Embodied Emission in Bilateral Trade Model  value added embodied in trade  carbon emission embodied in trade  carbon productivity of trade  trade imbalance

中文摘要:

      在欧盟碳边境调节机制等贸易碳壁垒层出不穷的国际贸易新形势下，我国对外贸易亟待破解低经济附加值和高碳排放双重压力。本研究运用双边贸易隐含排放分析模型，通过构建贸易碳生产率和贸易失衡度指标，从国家整体、双边贸易和三次产业三个层面，定量揭示了1995—2019年我国对外贸易中的碳排放和经济损益失衡现象。结果表明，2019年贸易净增加我国国内碳排放9.3亿吨。其中，中美和中欧贸易碳逆差分别为2.5亿吨和1.6亿吨。第二产业贸易导致9.8亿吨碳排放净流入我国，第一产业和第三产业贸易分别引发0.4亿吨和0.2亿吨碳排放净流出我国。2019年我国出口贸易整体碳生产率为1.0欧元/千克碳，约为全球平均值的一半；我国出口贸易失衡度为1.9，承担了相较于自身出口经济收益占比近两倍的碳排放责任。在我国三次产业中，仅第一产业出口贸易的碳生产率高于全球平均值、失衡度小于1.0。我国已成为国际转移排放的“污染避难所”，亟须通过采取持续强化绿色低碳技术自主创新、增加三产贸易占比、增强国内大循环主体作用等措施，应对更趋复杂的贸易和气候变化争端。

英文摘要:

      Under the new international trade circumstances in which trade carbon barriers such as the European Union Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism emerge in endlessly, China’s foreign trade urgently needs to crack the dual pressures of low economic value added and high carbon emission. By applying the Embodied Emission in Bilateral Trade Model and constructing the indices of carbon productivity of trade and trade imbalance, this study quantitatively reveals the imbalance between carbon and economic gains and losses in China’s foreign trade during the period 1995-2019 and from the whole country level, the bilateral trade level, and the three industries level, respectively. In 2019, China’s foreign trade increased its domestic carbon emission by 0.93 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide. The carbon deficits of China’s trades with the United States and the European Union were 0.25 billion and 0.16 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, respectively. The trade of the secondary industry resulted in a net inflow of 0.98 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide to China in 2019. In contrast, trades of the primary industry and the tertiary industry caused net outflows of 0.04 billion and 0.02 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide from China, respectively. In 2019, the overall carbon productivity of China’s export trade was 1.0 euros per kilogram of carbon dioxide, only about half of the global average. The trade imbalance index of China’s export was 1.9, indicating that China has assumed the carbon emission responsibility nearly twice as much as the ratio of its own EVA gained. Among the three industries, only the carbon productivity of the export trade of China’s primary industry was higher than the global average. Similarly, only the export trade imbalance index of China’s primary industry was less than 1.0. China has become a “pollution shelter” in international carbon emission transfer. In response to more complicated trade and climate change disputes, it is urgent for China to continuously strengthen independent innovation of green and low-carbon technologies, increase the proportion of the tertiary industry trade, and enhance the mainstay role of the domestic loop.