中国工业产品出口贸易及碳关税影响研究

Research on China’s Industrial Product Export Trade and the Impact of Carbon Tariff

中文关键词:  碳关税  中国工业产品出口贸易  双边贸易隐含排放分析模型  贸易隐含碳排放  贸易经济增加值  碳排放强度

英文关键词:carbon tariff  China’s industrial product export trade  Embodied Emission in Bilateral Trade Model  carbon emission embodied in trade  economic value added embodied in trade  carbon intensity

中文摘要:

      以欧盟碳边境调节机制为代表的碳关税政策将冲击我国工业产品出口贸易。本研究运用双边贸易隐含排放分析模型测算了我国40种工业产品的出口贸易额、经济增加值和隐含碳排放，进而结合情景分析法模拟了碳关税政策对我国出口贸易经济收益的影响。结果表明，2019年我国工业产品出口贸易额和增加值分别为22 486.0亿欧元和17 658.0亿欧元，并隐含了18.1亿t碳排放。我国出口较多的产品主要包括机电、化学品、家具、服装等制造业终端产品，出口较少的产品主要包括多类金属矿石和化石燃料。我国工业产品的碳排放强度为0.6 ～ 7.5kg碳/欧元，有90%类别的产品碳排放强度高于发达国家。当欧盟、所有发达国家以及我国所有贸易伙伴分别对工业产品出口贸易征收碳关税时，我国每年分别要缴纳112.4亿、480.5亿和1123.0亿欧元碳关税，贸易经济收益将分别下降0.6%、2.7%和6.4%。对此，我国亟须统筹做好应对气候变化谈判与合作、着力提升制造业绿色发展能力、完善全国碳定价机制等方面的工作，防范外贸风险，提高国际竞争力。

英文摘要:

      The carbon tariff policies represented by the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism will shock the export trade of China’s industrial products. This study applied the Embodied Emission in Bilateral Trade Model to measure the export volume, economic value added and carbon emission embodied in the export trade of China’s industrial products. On this basis, this study used scenario analysis to simulate the impact of carbon tariffs imposed by developed countries on the economic benefits of China’s export trade. In 2019, the volume, economic value added, and embodied carbon emission of China’s industrial product export trade were 2,248.6 billion euros, 1 765.8 billion euros, and 1.8 billion tonnes, respectively. China’s most exported industrial products mainly included electromechanical products, chemicals, furniture, clothing, and other final products of the manufacturing industry, while less exported products mainly included various metal ores and fossil fuels. The carbon emission intensities of China’s industrial products ranged from 0.6 to 7.5 kg of carbon per euro. Among them, 90% of the products had higher carbon emission intensities than developed countries. When only the EU, all developed countries, and all trade partners impose carbon tariffs on the export trade of industrial products, China has to pay 11.2 billion euros, 48.1 billion euros, and 112.3 billion euros of carbon tariffs respectively, and China’s economic benefits drop by 0.6%, 2.7%, and 6.4% respectively. In this regard, China urgently needs to coordinate the negotiation and cooperation on climate change, focus on improving the green development capacity of the manufacturing industry, and improve the national carbon pricing mechanism, so as to prevent risks and improve the competitiveness of its export trade.