中国铜产业体系演化的碳中和实现机制研究

The Realization Mechanism of Carbon Neutralization in the Evolution of China's Copper Industry

中文关键词:  铜产业  碳中和  物质流  生命周期评价  再生利用

英文关键词:copper industry  carbon neutralization  material flow  life cycle assessment  recycling

中文摘要:

      本文研究了我国铜产业采选、冶炼、加工和再生等环节的演化趋势，构建了铜产业直接碳排放-能源间接排放-其他间接排放相结合的多层级碳排放核算模型，分析了我国铜产业各环节碳排放演变规律及碳中和实现机制。结果表明：①1980-2020年我国铜精矿、精炼铜、铜加工材、再生铜产品分别增长了6.6倍、 25.1倍、 88.5倍、 37.1倍，受碳中和目标实现对电力需求量增加的影响，预计2060年铜资源消费总量将较2020年提升62.3%，铜资源社会存量将达到3.9亿t，再生铜将于2030年超过原生铜成为主导资源类型。②2020年铜产业的碳排放总量达到2968.2万tCO₂e，其中，采选环节的吨铜碳排放量最高，达到了3.4tCO₂e，是第二位冶炼的2.3倍；冶炼环节的碳排放总量最大，达到铜产业的39.3%；再生环节的降碳效果突出，相较原生采选冶炼环节减少1251.2万tCO₂e；进出口贸易则进一步降低了该产业43.7%的碳排放总量。③预计2060年铜产业碳排放总量将达到1499.8万tCO₂e，通过促进国际贸易、循环经济、技术创新及环境市场建设等举措，可大幅降低产业的碳排放总量，其中国际贸易及循环经济情景的碳减排效果在2030年前均较显著、随后逐渐下降，技术创新及环境市场建设是该产业碳中和目标实现的根本，在2060年的减排潜力分别达到535.9万t及607.9万t。为了更好地促进该产业可持续发展及“双碳”目标实现，建议依托国内国际双循环格局合理调控铜产业结构，秉持全生命周期理念加快构建铜产业绿色供应链，紧随碳中和发展趋势促进资源循环减污降碳协同增效。

英文摘要:

      In this paper, the evolution trend of mining, smelting, processing and recycling of Chinese copper industry is studied, and a multi-level carbon emission accounting model of direct carbon emission, indirect energy emission and other indirect emissions of copper industry is established, and the evolution law of carbon emission and the realization mechanism of carbon neutralization in each link of Chinese copper industry are analyzed. The results show that: ① From 1980 to 2020, copper concentrate, refined copper, copper processing materials and recycled copper products had respectively increased by 6.6 times, 25.1 times, 88.5 times and 37.1 times. Influenced by the increase in power demand caused by the realization of carbon neutrality, the total consumption of copper resources in 2060 is expected to increase by 62.3% compared with that in 2020. Copper resources in use will reach 390 million tonnes, and recycled copper will overtake primary copper as the dominant resource type in 2030. ② In 2020, the total carbon emission of the copper industry reached 29.682 million tonnes of CO₂e, among which the carbon emission of the ton of copper in the mining and processing link was the highest, reaching 3.4 tonnes of CO₂e, 2.3 times that of the second smelting. The total carbon emission of smelting was the largest, reaching 39.3% of that of copper industry. The carbon reduction effect of the regeneration process was more prominent, and the carbon reduction effect was 12.512 million tonnes less than that of the primary extraction and smelting process. Import and export trade further reduced the industry's total carbon emissions by 43.7 percent. ③ It is expected that the total carbon emissions of copper industry will reach 14.998 million tonnes of CO₂e in 2060. The total carbon emissions of copper industry can be significantly reduced by promoting international trade, recycling economy, technological innovation and environmental market construction, among which the carbon emission reduction effects of international trade and recycling economy scenarios will be significant before 2030, and then gradually decline. Technological innovation and environmental market construction are fundamental to the realization of the carbon neutral goal of the industry, with the emission reduction potential of 5.357 million tonnes and 6.079 million tonnes respectively in 2060. In order to better promote the sustainable development of the industry and achieve the dual-carbon goal, it is suggested to rationally regulate the copper industry structure based on the domestic and international dual-cycle pattern, uphold the concept of the whole life cycle to accelerate the construction of copper industry green supply chain, and follow the trend of carbon neutral development to promote the synergistic efficiency of resource recycling, pollution reduction and carbon reduction.