低碳试点政策对大气环境的影响及空间效应研究

Research on the Impact of Low-Carbon Pilot Policies on Atmospheric Environment and Spatial Effects

中文关键词:  低碳试点政策  大气环境  空间效应  合成控制法  双重差分法

英文关键词:low-carbon pilot policies  atmospheric environment  spatial effects  synthetic control method  double difference method

中文摘要:

      考虑以低碳转型推动区域资源节约与环境友好的高质量发展，对建设人与自然和谐共生的中国式现代化具有充分现实意义。本文以三批低碳城市试点为准自然实验，基于2004—2019年中国272个城市的平衡面板数据，运用合成控制法、双重差分法和空间杜宾模型，探究低碳试点政策影响城市大气环境的作用机制及空间效应。研究发现：①低碳试点城市的大气环境质量较非试点城市得到提升，经稳健性检验后这一结论依然成立。②通过异质性分析发现，低碳试点政策对地级市和非资源城市大气环境的改善效应更为显著；相较于特大城市和小城市，大中城市更有利于放大低碳试点的政策效应。③机制分析发现，低碳试点政策通过减排溢出效应、绿色创新效应和外资限流效应促进试点城市大气环境质量的提升。④低碳试点城市的大气环境改善效应存在正向空间溢出，试点邻近城市的大气环境因此得到治理。

英文摘要:

      In the process of Chinese-style modernization, considering low-carbon transformation to promote regional resource conservation and environment-friendly high-quality development is of full practical significance for building Chinese-style modernization in which man and nature live in harmony. Based on the balance panel data of 272 cities in Chinese mainland from 2004 to 2019, this paper uses synthetic control method, double difference method and spatial Dubin model to explore the mechanism and spatial effect of low-carbon pilot policies on urban atmospheric environment. It is found that: ① the atmospheric environment quality of low-carbon pilot cities is improved compared with that of non-pilot cities, and this conclusion is still valid after the robustness test. ② The heterogeneity analysis shows that the low-carbon pilot policy has a more significant effect on the improvement of the atmospheric environment of prefecture-level cities and non-resource cities. Compared with megacities and small cities, large and medium-sized cities are more conducive to amplifying the improvement effect of low-carbon pilot policies.③ The mechanism analysis shows that the low-carbon pilot policy promotes the improvement of the atmospheric environment quality of the pilot cities through emission reduction spillover effects, green innovation effects and foreign investment flow restriction effects.④ There is positive spatial spillover in the improvement effect of the atmospheric environment of the low-carbon pilot cities, and the atmospheric environment of the neighboring cities of the pilot is therefore treated.