秦云,肖风劲,於琍,等.碳中和评估与预测预估方法研究进展[J].中国环境管理,2024,16(1):63-72.
QIN Yun,XIAO Fengjin,YU Li,et al.Advances in the Methodologies on Carbon Neutrality Assessment, Prediction and Projection[J].Chinese Journal of Environmental Management,2024,16(1):63-72.
碳中和评估与预测预估方法研究进展
Advances in the Methodologies on Carbon Neutrality Assessment, Prediction and Projection
DOI:10.16868/j.cnki.1674-6252.2024.01.063
中文关键词:  碳中和  碳排放  二氧化碳  碳汇  预估
英文关键词:carbon neutrality  carbon emissions  carbon dioxide  carbon sinks  projection
基金项目:中国气象局气候研究开放课题青年基金项目“气候变化情景下我国碳中和的预估”(202210102HX111);中国长江三峡集团有限公司项目“气候变化对长江流域重大水利工程的影响评估及趋势预估”(0704181)。
作者单位E-mail
秦云 国家气候中心, 北京 100081
中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室, 北京 100081 
 
肖风劲 国家气候中心, 北京 100081 xiaofj@cma.gov.cn 
於琍 国家气候中心, 北京 100081  
陆波 国家气候中心, 北京 100081  
刘秋锋 国家气候中心, 北京 100081  
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中文摘要:
      人类活动排放的大量温室气体已经造成多种不利影响,为缓解这些不利影响,已有多个国家提出了碳中和目标。碳中和评估与预测预估是实现碳中和目标的科学基础,准确估算碳排放量和碳去除量是进行碳中和评估的关键,可以帮助决策者制定减排和增汇政策。本文梳理了碳排放量和碳去除量的估算方法以及预测预估方法的原理和特点,以期为准确评估碳中和现状以及预测预估未来情景下实现碳中和目标的可能性和路径提供方法论参考。碳排放量的估算方法可以分为用于支撑碳交易市场的碳排放核算方法、面向消费侧碳排放的估算方法和基于因素分解法的碳排放计量方法三大类;前两类方法主要用于历史碳排放量的盘点,第三类方法可用于碳排放量的预估。陆地生态系统碳去除量估算方法可以分为统计模型法、机理模型法和遥感模型法三大类;第一类方法应用最早但估算结果较粗糙,第二类方法模型应用最多但估算结果存在较大的不确定性,第三类方法观测范围大但缺乏预测预估能力。近年来,模型分析法在碳中和评估和预测预估上得到越来越广泛的应用。
英文摘要:
      The large amount of greenhouse gases emitted by human activities has caused a variety of adverse impacts, and to mitigate these adverse impacts, several countries have proposed carbon neutrality targets. Carbon neutrality assessment, prediction and projection are the scientific basis for achieving carbon neutrality targets, and accurate estimate of carbon emissions and removals is the key to carbon neutrality assessment, which can help policy makers formulate policies to reduce emissions and increase sinks. In this paper, the estimation methods of carbon emission and carbon removal, as well as the principles and characteristics of prediction and projection methods are reviewed, with a view to providing methodological references for accurately assessing the carbon neutrality status and for predicting and projecting the possibility and roads to achieve carbon neutrality targets under future scenarios. The estimation methods of carbon emissions can be divided into three categories: the carbon emission accounting methods used to support the carbon trading market, the consumption-oriented carbon emission estimation methods and the carbon emission measurement methods based on the factor decomposition method; The first two methods are mainly used for the inventory of historical carbon emissions, and the third method can be used for the projection of carbon emissions. The estimation methods of terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink can be divided into three categories: statistical model method, mechanism model method and remote sensing model method; The first method is the earliest applied but the estimation result is rough, the second method includes lots of models but the estimation results have great uncertainty, and the third method has a large observation range but lacks the prediction and projection ability. In recent years, the model analysis methods has been widely used in the assessment, prediction and projection of carbon neutrality.
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