基于消费者购车决策的购置税、燃油税节能减排效应分析

The Effect of Purchase Tax and Fuel Tax on Energy Saving and Emission Reduction Considering Consumer Car Purchase Decision

中文关键词:  购置税  燃油税  节能减排  需求估计  反事实模拟

英文关键词:purchase tax  fuel tax  energy-saving and emission reduction  demand estimation  counterfactual simulation

中文摘要:

      本文基于中国乘用车市场车型层面微观数据，采用前沿的需求模型估计方法，通过反事实分析，实证模拟了燃油税与购置税税率变动作用于消费者购车决策的价格收入效应与替代效应，进而从需求侧探究购置税与燃油税实现节能减排的微观经济学机制，兼论环境税对企业和社会总福利的影响。结论表明：燃油税具有显著的价格变动收入效应，即促使更多消费者放弃驾车出行模式，购置税具有显著的价格变动替代效应，即促使消费者选择购买小排量车型。在这样的机制下，组合税对需求的影响更多地取决于购置税，即购置税的价格替代效应超过燃油税的价格收入效应。这使得组合税在样本期并未实现总量上的节能减排，但税收组合政策使得中国乘用车市场车型平均油耗降低。从时间趋势来看，燃油税节能减排效应具有时间稳定性，购置税减排效果具有很大的波动性。从税制福利效应来看，组合税制的税收效应更多地向消费者市场转移。总的来看，燃油税与购置税的组合税政策并未实现“1+1＞ 2”的效应，未来减排工作的核心应在于通过调整和匹配税率，以实现组合税最优的政策效果。

英文摘要:

      Based on the microscopic data of the Chinese passenger car market, using the demand model estimation method and counterfactual simulation, this paper empirically simulates the price-income effect and substitution effect of tax rate change and then explores the microeconomic mechanism of energy saving and emission reduction from the demand side. The research conclusions show that: The fuel tax has a significant price-changing income effect, which is to encourage more consumers to abandon the driving mode. The purchase tax has a significant substitution effect of price changes, which prompts consumers to choose to purchase small-displacement models. Under such a mechanism, the impact of the combined tax on demand is more dependent on the purchase tax, that is, the substitution effect of the purchase tax exceeds the income effect of the fuel tax. Combined tax does not achieve energy saving and emission reduction in the total amount of emissions during the sample period, but the tax combination policy makes the average fuel consumption of the Chinese passenger car market model lower. From the perspective of time trend, the fuel tax emission reduction effect is stability, and the purchase tax emission reduction effect has great volatility. From the perspective of welfare, the tax effect of the combined tax is more transferred to the consumer market. In general, the combined taxation policy has not achieved the combined effect of“1+1>2”. The core of future emission reduction work should be to achieve the optimal policy effect of the combined tax by adjusting and matching the tax rate.