产业结构升级会降低碳排放强度吗？——基于绿色税收视角的考察

Will Industrial Structure Upgrading Reduce Carbon Emission Intensity: Investigation from the Perspective of Green Tax

中文关键词:  产业结构升级  碳排放强度  绿色税收  空间特征  门槛效应

英文关键词:industrial structure upgrading  carbon emission intensity  green tax  spatial feature  threshold effect

中文摘要:

      在“双碳”目标下，研究产业结构升级与碳减排有利于实现绿色低碳可持续发展。本文建立理论分析框架，基于2006—2020年全国省级面板数据，分析并实证检验绿色税收视角下产业结构升级对碳排放强度的影响。研究发现：省际碳排放强度具有显著的空间自相关性，邻近区域之间存在互相影响的可能；产业结构升级通过直接效应与经济效应、技术效应的间接效应抑制碳排放强度；本地区产业结构合理化对降低碳排放强度存在地区内溢出效应和空间溢出效应，若不考虑空间溢出效应，会高估产业结构合理化对碳排放强度的影响；产业结构升级对碳排放强度的影响在绿色税收的调节下存在时空异质性；绿色税收强度存在单一门槛特征，门槛值为0.3998%，当超过门槛值，绿色税收强度显著抑制产业结构升级的碳减排效应；绿色税收强度处于门槛值内的省份数量，在2018年突增，2018年排污费改征环境保护税显著增强了产业结构升级的碳减排效应。

英文摘要:

      Under the goal of“ Double Carbon”, studying the relationship between industrial structure upgrading and carbon emission reduction is conducive to realizing green, low-carbon and sustainable development. Based on the national provincial panel data from 2006 to 2020, this paper establishes a theoretical analysis framework to analyze and empirically test the impact of industrial structure upgrading on carbon emission intensity from the perspective of green tax. The study finds that: Inter-provincial carbon emission intensity has significant spatial auto-correlation, and there is a possibility of mutual influence between neighboring regions; Industrial structure upgrading suppresses carbon emission intensity through direct effects and indirect effects of economic and technological effects; Rationalization of the industrial structure in the region has inner-regional and spatial spillover effects on the reduction of carbon intensity, and the impact of rationalization on carbon intensity will be overestimated if the spatial spillover effect is not considered. The impact of industrial structure upgrading on carbon emission intensity has spatial and temporal heterogeneity under the regulation of green tax; There is a single threshold feature of green tax intensity, with a threshold value of 0.3998%, and when it exceeds the threshold value, the green tax intensity significantly inhibits the carbon emission reduction effect of industrial structure upgrading; The number of provincial and municipal cities where the green tax intensity is in the threshold value in 2018 suddenly increased, and the change of sewage charges to environmental protection tax significantly enhanced the carbon emission reduction effect of industrial structure upgrading in 2018.