长江流域"政区单元"河长制政策效果模拟与仿真研究

Simulation Research on the River Chief System Policy of Region Unit in the Yangtze River Basin

中文关键词:  系统动力学  仿真模拟  河长制政策  长江流域  政区单元

英文关键词:system dynamics  simulation  river chief policy  the Yangtze River basin  region unit

中文摘要:

      优化“条”“块”权力结构，实现跨流域、跨层级、跨部门、跨区域的纵横协同治理，是中国流域治理体系现代化建设的战略目标。河长制明确了“行政单元”的治水责任，但“流域单元”整体性的治水责任并未明确，“流域单元”与“行政单元”存在矛盾。长江流域“政区单元”河长制政策长期效果如何，能否实现长江流域整体性治理目标，需要科学验证。文章基于“驱动力—压力—状态—影响—响应”模型（DPSIR）理论，运用系统动力学的方法，借助Vensim PLE系统分析软件，从水环境治理—水资源利用—水生态修复三个维度，对长江流域“政区单元”河长制政策效果展开模拟与仿真研究，比较分析政策实施前后全流域及上游、中游、下游地区政策效果的异质性，预测河长制政策的长期效果。研究发现：①现有的流域管理体制下，长江流域河长制政策短期效果比较明显，长期政策效果将持续减弱；②河长制政策效果具有明显的区域异质性，下游地区整体的政策效果明显优于中上游地区，河长制政策效果与区域经济发展水平及地方政府的重视程度正相关；③2023—2035年，全流域河长制整体的政策效果逐年持续减弱，河长制政策缺乏较强的可持续性，水环境治理与水生态修复方面的政策效果呈下降趋势，水资源利用方面的政策效果呈小幅度上升趋势。设计“流域单元”河长制，优化流域管理的“条”“块”权力结构，弥补“政区单元”河长制的不足，是未来长江流域管理体制改革的重要内容。

英文摘要:

      It is the strategic goal of modernization of China’s watershed governance system to optimize the power structure of“basin” and“region”, and realize the coordinated governance across watersheds, levels, departments and regions. The river chief system clarifies the water management responsibilities of the“administrative unit”, but the overall water management responsibilities of the“basin unit” are not clear, and there is a contradiction between the“basin unit” and the“administrative unit”. The long-term effect of the“administrative unit” river chief system policy in the Yangtze River basin and whether it can realize the goal of the Yangtze River basin integrative management need scientific verification. Based on the theory of DPSIR, using the method of system dynamics and the software of Vensim PLE, this paper simulates the effects of the“administrative unit” river chief policy in the Yangtze River basin from the three dimensions of water environment governance, water resources utilization and water ecological restoration. The heterogeneity of policy effects in the entire basin and upstream, midstream, and downstream regions before and after policy implementation is compared and analyzed, and the long-term effects of the river chief system policy are predicted. It is found that: ① under the existing watershed management system, the short-term effect of the river chief system policy in the Yangtze River basin is obvious, and the long-term policy effect will continue to weaken; ② the effect of the river chief system policy has obvious regional heterogeneity, and the overall policy effect of the downstream region is significantly better than that of the upstream region, and the effect of the river chief system policy is positively correlated with the regional economic development level and the attention of local governments; and ③from 2023 to 2035, the overall policy effect of the river chief system in the whole watershed will continue to weaken year by year, the river chief system policy lacks strong sustainability, the policy effect of water environment governance and water ecological restoration shows a downward trend, and the policy effect of water resources utilization shows a slight upward trend. Designing the river chief system of“basin unit”, optimizing the power structure of“basin” and“region”, and making up the shortage of river chief system of“administrative unit” are the important contents of the reform of the Yangtze River basin management system in the future.