基于主体建模方法的企业对碳交易市场的响应研究

The Study of Enterprise Response to Carbon Trading Market Based on Agent-Based Modeling

中文关键词:  碳市场  基于主体的建模方法（ABM）  技术采纳  低碳转型

英文关键词:carbon market  Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)  technology adoption  low-carbon transformation

中文摘要:

      推动工业企业低碳转型是我国在“双碳”目标下的迫切要求。碳市场政策是激励企业自主减排的主要手段，但激励型政策效果受制于异质性企业的技术采纳决策和碳排放调控行为，给政策的设计与实施带来挑战。本研究以716家钢铁企业及12项低碳技术作为案例，基于企业主体的建模方法（ABM），设计了5类碳配额情景和5类碳市场活跃度情景，刻画了碳交易市场政策影响下微观层面企业低碳技术采纳决策及宏观层面的碳减排效果。研究发现：①收紧碳配额和增强市场活跃度都能产生促进企业采纳低碳技术、加快低碳转型的效果，不同企业的技术采纳行为之间呈现出“技术采纳时间窗口”和时滞效应特征；②碳配额收紧和提高碳市场活跃度可促进企业碳排放强度均值下降5%～24%，碳配额收紧到低于平均减排强度时才有较为明显的促进减排的效果，市场活跃度在较高和较低范围均有明显影响；③提高碳市场活跃度对工业低碳转型的影响效果比收紧碳配额更为显著，前者使碳排放强度均值下降了19%，后者为10%。建议政府应通过加强交易平台建设、鼓励中介参与等方式，促进碳市场的活跃性。

英文摘要:

      Promoting the low-carbon transformation of industrial enterprises is an urgent requirement for China under the“dual carbon” targets. Carbon market policies serve as the main means to incentivize enterprises for autonomous emission reduction. However, the effectiveness of incentive policies is constrained by the technology adoption decisions and carbon emission adjustment behaviors of heterogeneous enterprises, posing challenges to policy design and implementation. This study takes 716 steel enterprises and 12 low-carbon technologies as cases, and based on Agent-Based Modeling method (ABM), designs five different scenarios of carbon quotas and five different scenarios of carbon market activity levels. It depicts the micro-level enterprise decisions on low-carbon technology adoption and the macro-level carbon emission reduction effects under the influence of carbon trading market policies. The study finds that: ① Tightening carbon quotas and enhancing market activity can both promote enterprise adoption of low-carbon technologies and accelerate low-carbon transformation. Different enterprises exhibit characteristics of“technology adoption time windows” and time lag effects in their technology adoption behaviors. ② Tightening carbon quotas and increasing carbon market activity can promote a decrease in the average carbon emission intensity of enterprises by 5% to 24%. Significant promotion of emission reduction occurs only when carbon quotas are tightened to below the average emission intensity. Market activity has a significant impact in both high and low ranges. ③ Increasing carbon market activity has a more significant effect on industrial low-carbon transformation compared to tightening carbon quotas. The former results in a 19% decrease in carbon emission intensity, while the latter leads to a 10% decrease. It is suggested that the government should promote market activity by strengthening the construction of trading platforms and encouraging intermediary participation.