绿色金融发展提升了我国制造业韧性吗？——基于静态凡登定律视角的研究

Does the Development of Green Finance Enhance the Resilience of China’s Manufacturing Industry?—Research from the Perspective of Static Verdoorn Law

中文关键词:  制造业韧性  绿色金融  金融深化  技术创新

英文关键词:manufacturing resilience  green finance  financial deepening  technological innovation

中文摘要:

      提升制造业韧性是实现《中国制造2025》制造强国战略目标的内在要求。基于2008—2021年中国30个省份（西藏和港澳台地区除外）的面板数据样本，本研究运用广义矩估计的差分广义矩估计（Generalized Method of Moments,GMM）模型、有调节的中介效应模型和门槛效应模型，实证考察了绿色金融对制造业韧性的影响。研究发现：考察期间我国制造业韧性存在较大波动性，绿色金融对制造业韧性具有显著提升作用。从异质性检验发现，绿色金融对金属、非金属行业韧性具有抑制效应，对中东部地区、低开放水平区和低市场化水平区制造业韧性提升效应更显著，绿色信贷和绿色支持对制造业韧性提升作用更强。从作用机制来看，绿色金融主要通过技术创新和产业结构升级两个中介路径提升制造业韧性，金融深化对技术创新路径具有负向调节作用，对产业结构升级路径具有正向调节作用。运用门槛效应模型进一步研究发现，绿色金融对制造业韧性的提升作用存在边界效应。

英文摘要:

      Enhancing manufacturing resilience is an inherent requirement to achieve the strategic goal of“Made in China 2025” to become a manufacturing power. Based on the panel data samples of 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2021 except Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, using the difference GMM model of generalized moment estimation, the moderated mediating effect model and the threshold effect model, this paper empirically examined the impact of green finance on the manufacturing resilience. The research found that: during the investigation period, the resilience of China’s manufacturing industry had great fluctuations, and green finance had significantly improved the resilience of the manufacturing industry. From the heterogeneity test, it was found that green finance had an inhibitory effect on the resilience of metal and non-metal industries, and had a more significant effect on improving the manufacturing resilience in the central and eastern regions, areas with low level of openness and low level of marketization. From the perspective of action mechanism, green finance mainly improved manufacturing resilience through two intermediary paths: technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading, financial deepening had a negative moderating effect on the path of technological innovation and a positive moderating effect on the path of industrial structure upgrading. Further research using the threshold effect model found that there was a boundary effect in the promotion of green finance on manufacturing resilience.