黄河流域生态绩效评估：生态效率、舆论感知及其影响因素

Ecological Performance Assessment of the Yellow River Basin: Ecological Efficiency, Public Perception and Its Influencing Factors

中文关键词:  生态绩效  黄河流域  情感分析  结构方程模型

英文关键词:ecological Performance  the Yellow River Basin  sentiment analysis  structural equation model

中文摘要:

      针对现有“生态绩效”研究过分重视经济效益、相对忽视社会效益的缺陷，本文试以“舆论感知”衡量居民满意度、获得感，以此评估我国生态治理活动的社会效益，并借此拓展“生态绩效”研究维度，超越单纯的“生态效率”讨论，综合考虑生态治理活动的经济、社会和环境效益。为此，本文以黄河流域九省（区）为研究对象，基于2018—2022年月度数据，采用Malmquist指数分析生态效率，使用文本分析研究微博舆情，并运用Tobit模型、结构方程模型研究其影响因素。结果表明：①经济效益层面，青海、宁夏生态效率提升显著；河南、山东变化较小，且维持在较低水平；山西、内蒙古生态效率略有下滑；人口压力、政府干预和能源消耗对生态效率有显著影响。②社会效益层面，舆论对黄河的评价逐年增高，居民获得感显著提升，舆论风向存在明显的季节性周期特征，夏季正向舆论评价较多，春季负向舆论评价居多。③影响因素方面，经济效益对舆论风向影响最大，经济条件改善提高了居民对环境的忍耐阈值，但未减少居民对政府治理活动的正向评价，这表明政府治理活动切实满足了居民需求。

英文摘要:

      To address the shortcomings of existing research on “ecological performance”, which overly emphasizes economic benefits while relatively neglects social benefits, this study measures residents’ satisfaction and sense of gain through “public opinion perception”. It aims to expand the dimensions of “ecological performance” research, move beyond a purely “ecological efficiency” discussion to consider the economic, social and environmental benefits of ecological governance activities. This paper focuses on the nine provinces of the Yellow River Basin, based on the monthly data from 2018 to 2022, uses Malmquist index to analyze ecological efficiency, uses text analysis to study public opinion on Weibo, and uses Tobit model and structural equation model to investigate its influencing factors. The results indicate: ① In terms of economic benefits, the ecological efficiency of Qinghai and Ningxia improved significantly; Henan and Shandong showed minimal changes and maintained at low levels; The ecological efficiency of Shanxi and Inner Mongolia declined slightly. Population pressure, government intervention and energy consumption had significant effects on ecological efficiency.② Regarding social benefits, public opinion’s evaluation of the Yellow River had increased annually, with a notable enhancement in residents’ sense of gain. The public opinion trend exhibited clear seasonal cyclical characteristics, with more positive evaluations in summer and more negative evaluations in spring. ③ In terms of influencing factors, economic benefits had the greatest impact on public opinion trends. Improvements in economic conditions had raised residents’ tolerance to environmental issues without reducing their positive evaluations of government governance activities, indicating that government efforts effectively meet residents’ needs.