调整财政支出结构推进中国式现代化：基于包容性绿色增长目标的理论模型与实证检验

Adjusting Fiscal Expenditure Structure to Advance Chinese Modernization: A Theoretical Model and Empirical Analysis Based on Inclusive Green Growth Goals

中文关键词:  财政支出结构  中国式现代化  包容性绿色增长  影响效应  理论模型

英文关键词:Fiscal expenditure structure  Chinese modernization  Inclusive Green Growth  Impact effects  Theoretical model

中文摘要:

      包容性绿色增长是中国式现代化进程中推动高质量发展的重要途径。本文通过理论模型构建、指标体系测算和实证检验，系统研究了财政支出结构对包容性绿色增长的影响机制。研究创新性地拓展了包容性绿色增长模型，将社会与生态治理的经济损益转化为治理成本与收益，并引入财政支出结构的异质性功能支出进行分析。基于2007-2022年省级面板数据的实证研究发现，社会性支出和生态性支出对包容性绿色增长具有显著的促进作用，而经济性支出则表现出抑制效应。进一步的分维度分析揭示，社会性支出产生积极的经济溢出效应，生态性支出虽短期效果不明显但符合环境治理规律，经济性支出在新发展阶段可能产生挤出效应。研究建议应稳步提升社会性支出和生态性支出的结构占比，同时优化经济性支出和维持性支出的使用效率，为推进中国式现代化提供支撑。

英文摘要:

      Inclusive Green Growth serves as a crucial pathway for promoting high-quality development in China's modernization process. Through theoretical model construction, indicator system measurement, and empirical testing, this paper systematically examines how fiscal expenditure structure influences Inclusive Green Growth. The research innovatively extends the Inclusive Green Growth model by converting the economic costs and benefits of social and ecological governance into management costs and returns, while incorporating heterogeneous functional expenditures in fiscal spending structure for analysis. Empirical research based on provincial panel data from 2007-2022 reveals that social and ecological expenditures significantly promote Inclusive Green Growth, while economic expenditures demonstrate an inhibitory effect. Further dimensional analysis shows that social expenditure generates positive economic spillover effects, ecological expenditure's short-term effects may be less apparent but align with environmental governance patterns, and economic expenditure may produce crowding-out effects in the new development stage. The study recommends steadily increasing the structural proportion of social and ecological expenditures while optimizing the efficiency of economic and maintenance expenditures to support the advancement of Chinese modernization.