考虑碳配额价格动态性的个人碳交易市场演化研究

Research on the Evolution of the Personal Carbon Trading Market Considering the Dynamics of Carbon Quota Prices

中文关键词:  个人碳交易  市场演化  碳配额价格动态性  演化博弈

英文关键词:personal carbon trading  market evolution  dynamics of carbon quota prices  evolutionary game theory

中文摘要:

      面向碳达峰碳中和战略目标，探索建立个人碳交易机制既是促进消费侧碳减排的一种可行方案、有益尝试，也能作为对生产侧碳交易体系的有效延伸与有力补充。为了更好地揭示个人碳交易市场演进机理，根据家庭日常生活消费的碳足迹情况，将特定区域内的居民分为高碳家庭和低碳家庭两大类，分别代表市场中碳配额的潜在需求方与供给方，同时创新引入碳配额市场价格的动态性，构建考虑微观主体策略选择与区域规制市场关联交互的个人碳交易市场内生演化博弈模型，揭示区域个人碳交易市场的内生演化机制、多重演化格局等，并识别个人碳交易机制顺利推广的边界条件。研究结果表明：系统具有八种演化稳定策略以及多重异常复杂的演进动态，系统演进主要取决于市场主体参与碳交易相较不参与的固定收益、碳配额价格及其动态性以及碳配额交易量。据此，系统梳理了低碳家庭与高碳家庭参与个人碳交易与否的充分条件、必要条件与政府引导调控等，并从多维度综合提出探索建立与推进个人碳交易的政策建议。

英文摘要:

      In the context of the strategic objectives of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, establishing a personal carbon trading mechanism is not only a feasible and beneficial approach to promoting carbon reduction on the consumption side, but also an effective extension and supplement to the production side carbon trading system. To better reveal the evolution mechanism of the personal carbon trading market, Households in a specific region are categorized into high-carbon or low-carbon based on their daily consumption carbon footprints, representing the potential demand and supply of carbon quotas in the market. By introducing the dynamic carbon quota pricing, we develop an endogenous evolutionary game model of the personal carbon trading market to analyze the strategic interactions between individual-level decision-making behaviors and regional regulatory markets. This model uncovers the endogenous evolution mechanisms and multiple evolution patterns of the regional personal carbon trading market while identifying the boundary conditions for successful implementation. The results indicate that the system exhibits eight evolutionary stabilization strategies and multiple complex evolutionary dynamics, including four single-population pure strategies and four dual-population pure strategies. The evolutionary dynamics are predominantly influenced by the fixed benefits of market participation versus non-participation, carbon quota prices and their volatility, as well as the initial quota allocations. Accordingly, we systematically clarify the sufficient and necessary conditions for household participation in personal carbon trading and government regulatory guidance, while proposing multidimensional policy recommendations for establishing and advancing personal carbon trading mechanisms.