黄河流域城市群水资源可持续发展评价及其障碍因素研究

Evaluation and Obstacle Factors of Sustainable Development Level of Water Resources in Urban Agglomerations of the Yellow River Basin

中文关键词:  黄河流域  城市群  水资源可持续发展  障碍因子

英文关键词:the Yellow River Basin  urban agglomeration  water resources sustainable development  obstacle factors

中文摘要:

      黄河流域城市群是我国生态安全的重要屏障和生产力布局的战略核心区，但自然地理条件和生态本底相对薄弱，面临着严重的水资源短缺问题，水土流失严重，水资源开发利用率高，“人—水”矛盾凸显，探究黄河流域城市群水资源可持续发展现状及其障碍因素具有重要的现实意义。基于2007—2022年黄河流域7个城市群58个地级市的面板数据，本研究对黄河流域城市群水资源可持续发展水平进行测度，并利用Dagum基尼系数与障碍度模型分析黄河流域城市群水资源可持续发展的区域差异和障碍因子。研究结果表明：①2007—2022年，黄河流域城市群水资源可持续发展指数整体呈波动上升趋势且增长速度缓慢，呈现“东高西低”的空间分布格局。②黄河流域城市群水资源可持续发展水平总体差异呈“下降—上升”频繁交替的波动特征，区域间差异是主要来源，其贡献率波动上升，区域内差异贡献率相对稳定，超变密度贡献率呈波动下降趋势。③影响黄河流域城市群水资源可持续发展水平的主要障碍因子是产水系数、年降水量、农业用水量占比、地表水资源占比、人均日生活用水量、工业用水量占比。

英文摘要:

      While the Yellow River Basin urban agglomeration is a strategic core area of productivity layout in China and a significant barrier to ecological security, its natural geographic conditions and ecological background are relatively weak, and it encounters significant challenges such as a shortage of water resources, significant soil erosion, a high rate of water resource development and utilization, and the growing conflict between human needs and water availability. Examining the current state of sustainable water resource development and its obstacle factors in urban agglomerations of the Yellow River Basin is extremely important from a practical standpoint. Based on the panel data of 58 prefectural-level cities in 7 urban agglomerations of the Yellow River Basin from 2007 to 2022, the level of sustainable development of water resources in urban agglomerations of the Yellow River Basin is measured, and the regional discrepancies and obstacle factors of sustainable implementation of water resources in urban agglomerations of the Yellow River Basin are modelled using the Dagum's Gini coefficient and barrier magnitude module. According to the study's findings,① the sustainable index of water resources in urban agglomerations of the Yellow River Basin indicates a slow growth rate overall and a fluctuating upward trend from 2007 to 2022, with a low growth rate in the west and a high index in the east. ② The overall disparity in the degree of sustainable water resource development in the Yellow River Basin urban agglomeration is marked by a "falling-rising" fluctuation, with the interregional difference assisting as the main source of energy and its fluctuating contribution rate is increasing. In contrast, the intraregional difference's contribution rate is fairly constant, and the hypervariable density contribution rate is fluctuating downward. ③ The number of water-producing systems, the amount of precipitation yearly, the quantity of surface water resources, the proportions of agricultural water consumption, the daily per capita domestic water consumption, and the percentages of industrial water consumption are the key variables determining the sustainable development level of water resources in the Yellow River Basin urban agglomeration.