中国炼油设施碳排放量化模型及排放特征研究

Research on Carbon Emission Quantification Model and Emission Characteristics of China’s Refineries

中文关键词:  炼油设施  碳排放  生命周期评价  量化模型  排放特征

英文关键词:refinery  carbon emissions  life-cycle assessment  quantitative model  emission characteristics

中文摘要:

      中国是全球炼油产能第一大国，炼油设施的产品需求稳定，但其原油进料各异、工艺单元复杂、产品谱系多元，碳排放异质性高，尚缺少高精度碳排放表征方法，导致我国炼油设施排放底数不清，减排挑战突出。本研究搭建了适配我国炼油设施多样化生产特征的碳排放量化模型，建立原油混合、制氢、电力、供热等多个关键模块，构建装置级能源—过程—排放交互对应关系，为我国炼油行业制定靶向降碳路径奠定基础。研究显示，1998—2023年全国炼油设施累计碳排放达48.87亿tCO₂e，2023年碳排放为2.94亿tCO₂e，全国炼油设施加工1t原油的碳排放强度为270～659 kg CO₂e/t，平均为405 kgCO₂e/t，占行业总碳排放83%的深度加工型炼油设施碳排放强度最高，达到418 kgCO₂e/t，且近十年新建设施碳强度有所上升。建议针对炼油设施集群推广集中供热、热电联产和可再生能源供热，支持可再生能源制氢以减少化石燃料制氢需求；对于深度加工设施应优化其装置工艺效率，增强加工转化的靶向性以缩短生产链路。

英文摘要:

      China is the world’s largest refiner by capacity with stable demand for refined products. However, there is significant heterogeneity in carbon emissions of refineries due to diverse crude feedstocks, complex processing units, and varied product portfolios. A high-precision characterization method for carbon emissions is still lacking, leaving the refinery emission baseline unclear and posing substantial challenges for emission reduction. This study develops a carbon emission quantification model tailored to the diverse production characteristics of China’s refineries, incorporating critical modules such as crude blending, hydrogen production, power, and heating. The model establishes an energy-process-emission correspondence at the unit level, laying a foundation for targeted carbon reduction strategies in China’s refining industry. The results indicate refinery cumulative emissions of 4.887 billion tons CO₂e from 1998 to 2023, with 2023 emissions totaling 294 million tons CO₂e. The range of refinery carbon emission intensity per ton of crude processed in 2023 is 270～659 kg CO₂e/ton, with an average of 405 kg CO₂e/ton. Deep conversion refineries account for 83% of total emissions, with the highest intensity at 418 kg CO₂e/ton. Emission intensity in newly constructed deep conversion facilities has increased over the past decade. Accordingly, recommendations include promoting centralized heating, combined heat and power, and renewable energy-based heating within refinery clusters, alongside advancing renewable hydrogen production to reduce reliance on fossil-based hydrogen. For deep conversion facilities, it is suggested to enhance process efficiency and targeting production pathways to streamline processing chains.