产业规划何以影响农业绿色发展效率的提升 ——来自“西甜瓜产业规划”准自然实验证据

How Industrial Planning Affects the Efficiency of Green Agricultural Development--a quasi-natural experimental evidence from “watermelon and melon industrial planning”

中文关键词:  产业规划  西瓜  甜瓜  绿色发展效率  连续型双重差分模型

英文关键词:industrial planning  watermelon  melon  green development efficiency  continuous difference in difference model

中文摘要:

      产业规划作为中国特色的宏观政策调控工具，精准评估产业规划效应对推动产业高质量发展具有重要意义。本研究基于2000-2022年西甜瓜生产的省域面板数据，以《全国西瓜甜瓜产业发展规划（2015—2020年）》为准自然实验，运用超效率SBM模型、连续型双重差分模型、中介效应模型等方法测度分析西甜瓜绿色发展效率的演化特征，探究西甜瓜产业规划对绿色发展效率的影响及作用机制。研究结果表明:西甜瓜绿色发展效率整体处于较低水平，但总体呈现波动中上升的态势，西甜瓜绿色发展效率具有显著的阶段性特征，2015年之后西甜瓜绿色发展效率的增速明显加快。西甜瓜产业规划实施能够显著提升绿色发展效率，该结论在经过一系列检验后依旧成立。机制分析表明西甜瓜产业规划通过促进产业集聚和技术创新推动产业绿色发展效率的提升，是实现西甜瓜绿色发展的重要路径。

英文摘要:

      Industrial planning, as a macro-policy regulation tool with Chinese characteristics, holds significant importance in accurately evaluating its effects to drive high-quality industrial development. Based on provincial panel data of watermelon and melon production from 2000 to 2022, this study employs the "National Industrial Development Plan for Watermelon and melon (2015–2020)" as a quasi-natural experiment. By utilizing the Super-SBM model, continuous difference in difference model, and mediation effect model, it measures the evolutionary characteristics of green development efficiency in the watermelon and melon industries, and investigates the impact of industrial planning on green development efficiency as well as its underlying mechanisms.The results show that:The green development efficiency of watermelon and melon industries remains at a relatively low level overall, yet demonstrates an upward trend with fluctuations. Notably, the green development efficiency exhibits distinct phased characteristics, with its growth rate accelerating significantly post-2015 following the implementation of the industrial development plan.The implementation of watermelon and melon industrial planning has been proven to significantly enhance green development efficiency and this finding remains robust across a battery of robustness tests.The mechanism analysis empirically identifies that the implementation of watermelon and muskmelon industrial planning drives green development efficiency improvement by promoting industrial agglomeration and technological innovation, which serve as dual mediating pathways to achieve green transition.