地缘政治风险对气候变化适应的影响研究

Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Climate Change Adaptation

中文关键词:  地缘政治风险  气候变化适应  双向固定效应

英文关键词:geopolitical risks  climate change adaptation  two-way fixed effects

中文摘要:

      全球地缘政治事件频发与气候变化影响交织叠加，加剧了气候变化适应行动的复杂性和系统性风险。为探究地缘政治风险对气候变化适应的影响，本文基于1995—2021年41个国家和地区面板数据，构建双向固定效应模型开展影响评估、异质性检验和影响维度分析。结果显示：①经多种稳健性检验证实，地缘政治风险对气候变化适应存在显著负面影响。②温室气体排放高、北美洲国家及可再生能源使用占比较低国家的气候变化适应更容易受到地缘政治风险带来的负面影响。③影响维度分析结果表明，地缘政治风险通过降低气候变化适应就绪度来影响各国气候变化适应能力。基于上述结论，本文提出相关政策建议，为中国积极参与全球气候治理提供参考。

英文摘要:

      The frequent occurrence of global geopolitical events and the escalating impacts of climate change are deeply intertwined, compounding the complexity and systemic risks associated with climate change adaptation efforts. To examine the impact of geopolitical risks on climate change adaptation, this study employs a two-way fixed effects model using panel data from 41 countries over the period 1995-2021, to conduct impact assessments, heterogeneity tests, and dimensional analysis. The results show that: ① Based on multiple robustness tests, geopolitical risks have a significant negative impact on climate change adaptation. ② Heterogeneity tests suggest that countries with high GHG emissions, North American countries, or countries with lower shares of renewable energy use exhibit greater vulnerability to the adverse impacts of geopolitical risks on climate change adaptation. ③ Dimensional analysis confirms that geopolitical risks undermine regional climate change adaptation capacity by reducing climate adaptation readiness. Based on these findings, the paper proposes targeted policy recommendations to inform China’s active engagement in global climate governance.