全球碳中和进展评估方法综述与展望

A Review and Prospects of Global Carbon Neutrality Progress Assessment Methods

中文关键词:  碳中和  气候变化  进展评估  指标体系  方法学  数据基础

英文关键词:carbon neutrality  climate change  progress assessment  index system  methodology  data foundation

中文摘要:

      随着全球160余个国家和地区提出碳中和目标，科学评估各国进展已成为气候治理领域的重要议题。然而，现有评估实践面临目标异质性强、评估维度多元、方法标准化不足、数据质量参差等多重挑战，亟须系统性的方法学梳理与反思。本文对全球气候行动与碳中和进展评估的指标体系、核心方法学及数据基础进行了系统综述，研究首先追溯了评估框架从“条约遵约”到“综合绩效”再到“目标对齐”的三阶段演进历程，揭示了评估范式从回顾性绩效评价向前瞻性目标一致性评估的转型趋势。在此基础上，本文比较分析了CCPI、CAT、CI、C3-I、EPI、GCPI及AR-GCNP等主流框架，发现现有体系虽普遍采用多维度评估并重视排放与政策因素，但在权重主观性、公平性量化、数据时效性及对碳中和长期目标的整合等方面仍存在显著局限。本文进一步解析了指数合成、基准设定、差距分析等关键方法学，并梳理了从传统统计数据向模型模拟与大数据融合演进的数据趋势。最后，本文结合清华大学AR-GCNP框架的“目标—政策—行动—成效”链条式设计，探讨了中国参与全球气候评估治理的机遇，并指出未来评估体系应实现从静态排名向动态追踪、从单一绩效向全过程评估、从发达国家主导向多元共治的全方位转型。

英文摘要:

      With over 160 countries and regions committing to carbon neutrality targets, scientifically assessing national progress has become a crucial issue in global climate governance. Current assessment practices, however, are constrained by heterogeneous targets, multidimensional evaluation needs, insufficient methodological standardization, and uneven data quality, calling for systematic methodological review and reflection. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the indicator systems, core methodologies, and data foundations for assessing global climate actions and carbon neutrality progress. The study first traces the three-phase evolution of assessment frameworks, from“treaty compliance” to“comprehensive performance” and then to“target alignment”, revealing a paradigm shift from retrospective performance evaluation toward forward-looking target consistency assessment. Building on this, the paper comparatively analyzes leading frameworks including CCPI, CAT, CI, C3-I, EPI, GCPI, and AR-GCNP. It finds that while these systems share common features such as multidimensional design and emphasis on emissions and policy, significant limitations persist in subjective weighting, equity quantification, data timeliness, and integration of long-term carbon neutrality goals. The paper further analyzes key methodologies, including index synthesis, benchmark setting, and gap analysis, and examine the evolving data ecosystem from traditional statistics toward model simulation and big data integration. Finally, drawing on the“target-policy-action-performance” chain design of Tsinghua University’s ARGCNP framework, the paper explores China’s opportunities in global assessment governance and argue that future assessment systems should transition from static ranking to dynamic tracking, from single-dimension performance to full-process evaluation, and from developedcountry dominance toward more inclusive methodologies.