全球碳中和目标与国家自主贡献分析

Analysis of Global Carbon Neutrality Targets and Nationally Determined Contributions

中文关键词:  国家自主贡献  碳中和目标  一致性评估  全球气候治理  雄心指数

英文关键词:Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)  carbon neutrality target  consistency assessment  global climate governance  ambition index

中文摘要:

      《巴黎协定》通过以来，全球气候治理进入从目标共识向落实行动转变的新阶段。本文基于《联合国气候变化框架公约》（UNFCCC）国家自主贡献（Nationally Determined Contributions,NDC）登记册、Net Zero Tracker及各国官方公告等资料，构建了覆盖198个国家与地区的气候目标数据库，对NDC与碳中和目标的设定、时间分布及一致性进行系统评估。研究发现：截至2025年10月，仅有70个缔约方提交了2035年NDC，提交情况显著低于2030年NDC，但目标明确性和覆盖范围均有所提升；碳中和/净零排放已成为各国政策主流，166个国家与地区宣布了碳中和/净零排放目标。然而，在部分公平原则下，多数国家的NDC减排力度仍不足以支撑其长期碳中和承诺，存在“长期雄心高、近期雄心弱”的不一致问题。各国应根据各自国情提升NDC清晰度与力度，加强NDC与碳中和目标的一致性，发挥NDC作为长期目标的中短期“锚点”的重要作用。

英文摘要:

      Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, global climate governance has entered a new stage of transition from consensus on targets to the implementation of actions. Based on data from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Nationally Determined Contributions Registry, Net Zero Tracker, and national official announcements, this study constructs a climate target database covering 198 countries and regions to systematically evaluate the design, temporal distribution, and consistency of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and carbon neutrality targets. The results show that as of October 2025, only 70 countries have submitted their 2035 NDCs, significantly lower than the submission rate for 2030, though these submissions exhibit improved clarity and coverage. Carbon neutrality/net-zero emissions have become mainstream in national policies, with 165 countries having announced such targets. However, under certain equity principles, the mitigation efforts outlined in most countries’ NDCs remain insufficient to support their long-term carbon neutrality commitments, revealing a structural inconsistency of“high long-term ambition but weak near-term ambition.” Countries should enhance the clarity and strength of their NDCs in line with their respective national conditions, strengthen the consistency between NDCs and carbon neutrality targets, and give full play to the important role of NDCs as medium- and short-term anchors for long-term targets.