公平视角下国家自主贡献3.0目标的气候雄心评估

Assessment of the Climate Ambition of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) 3.0 Targets from a Fairness Perspective

中文关键词:  全球碳排放权分配  国家自主贡献（NDC）  公平原则  雄心指数  《巴黎协定》

英文关键词:global carbon emission allocation  Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC)  fairness principles  ambition index  Paris Agreement

中文摘要:

      本文对标《巴黎协定》1.5℃温控目标，构建了融合责任与能力、人均主义、分阶段及国家主义四项公平原则的全球碳排放权分配与雄心评估综合模型，结合文本分析与量化方法，系统评估了截至2025年10月已提交国家自主贡献（NDC） 3.0的62个国家新一轮气候承诺的公平性和雄心水平。研究发现，各国在公平原则的文本表述与量化目标的减排雄心之间存在系统性偏离：发达国家虽普遍援引责任与能力原则，其在该原则下新一轮NDC排放目标达到公平配额的雄心满足率却不足一成，“公平性赤字”问题突出；发展中国家展现出相对较高的雄心水平，但仍有超过一半的国家承诺未能符合1.5℃路径要求，雄心差距仍然存在。建议未来全球机制依托量化评估工具，增强共同但有区别责任原则的透明度与约束力，弥合“公平—雄心双重差距”，推动全球排放路径与《巴黎协定》目标对齐。

英文摘要:

      This paper benchmarks against the 1.5℃ temperature control target set by the Paris Agreement and constructs a comprehensive model for global carbon emission rights allocation and ambition assessment that integrates four fairness principles: responsibility and capacity, the per capita principle, a phased approach, and national sovereignty. Combining textual analysis and quantitative methods, it systematically assesses the fairness and ambition levels of the latest round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC 3.0) submitted by 62 countries as of October 2025. The study finds that there is a systematic deviation between the textual expression of fairness principles and the ambition of quantitative targets for emission reduction among countries: although developed countries generally invoke the principles of responsibility and capacity, the ambition satisfaction rate of their new NDC emission targets reaching the fair quota under this principle is less than 10%, highlighting the prominent“fairness deficit” issue; developing countries show relatively high ambition levels, but more than half of their commitments still fail to meet the requirements of the 1.5℃ pathway, indicating that an ambition gap still exists. It is suggested that future global mechanisms rely on quantitative assessment tools to enhance the transparency and binding force of the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, bridge the“dual gap of fairness and ambition”, and promote the alignment of global emission paths with the goals of the Paris Agreement.