关键碳中和技术的2030年目标与全球进展差距评估

Assessing the 2030 Targets and Global Progress Gaps of Key Carbon Neutrality Technologies

中文关键词:  碳中和技术  目标差距评估  可再生能源  CCUS  清洁氢  技术政策

英文关键词:carbon neutrality technologies  target gap assessment  renewable energy  CCUS  clean hydrogen  technology policy

中文摘要:

      碳中和目标的实现依托于关键低碳技术的快速部署与规模化应用。然而，全球范围内各类技术的既定目标与实际进展之间仍存在显著差距。本文构建了一个涵盖七类关键碳中和技术[可再生能源电力、电动车、节能、生物燃料、碳捕集利用与封存（CCUS）、清洁氢和森林碳汇]的系统评估框架，综合国际数据库与政策情景数据，对各技术的2030年目标与当前部署进展之间的差距进行了定量评估。结果显示，全球层面七类关键技术的目标完成度仅为1%至42%，其中节能、生物燃料和CCUS的进展最为滞后，而可再生能源和电动车虽已实现规模化增长，但增速尚未达到如期完成目标的要求；清洁氢和CCUS技术面临高成本与基础设施不足的双重约束，而森林碳汇的治理与监测体系仍需进一步强化。总体来看，全球碳中和技术体系面临增速不足、结构失衡和投资缺口并存的局面。针对这些挑战，本文提出应通过加快重点领域技术创新、实施差异化支持政策、优化投融资结构、强化国际协同治理等措施，形成系统性的技术发展框架，助力全球碳中和目标的实现。

英文摘要:

      The achievement of carbon neutrality relies on the rapid deployment and large-scale application of key low-carbon technologies. However, there remains a significant gap globally between the established targets for various technologies and their actual progress. This study develops a systematic evaluation framework covering seven key carbon neutrality technologies―renewable power generation, electric vehicles, energy efficiency, biofuels, Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS), clean hydrogen, and forest carbon sinks. By integrating international databases and policy scenario data, the study quantitatively evaluates the gap between the 2030 targets and the current deployment progress of each technology. The results show that, globally, the target completion rates for these seven key technologies range from 1% to 42%. Among them, energy efficiency, biofuels, and CCUS show the most lagging progress, while renewable energy and electric vehicles have achieved scale-up growth but have not yet reached the required growth rate to meet the targets on schedule. Clean hydrogen and CCUS technologies face dual constraints of high costs and insufficient infrastructure, while the governance and monitoring systems for forest carbon sinks still need further enhancement. Overall, the global carbon neutrality technology system is confronted with insufficient growth rates, structural imbalances, and investment gaps. To address these challenges, this paper suggests accelerating technological innovation in key areas, implementing differentiated support policies, optimizing investment and financing structures, and strengthening international collaborative governance. These efforts aim to form a systematic technological development framework, thereby supporting the realization of global carbon neutrality goals.