全球定价规律与中国实践融合的可持续航空燃料价格形成机制：多因素影响分析与政策启示

The Price Mechanism of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Integrating Global Pricing Rules and Chinese Practices: Multi-stage Policy Coordination and Market Design

中文关键词:  可持续航空燃料  价格机制  民航业  中国实践  政策协同

英文关键词:sustainable aviation fuel  price mechanism  civil aviation industry  Chinese practices  policy coordination

中文摘要:

      本研究基于市场均衡理论、成本加成模型与政策传导机制，构建覆盖全球规律与中国实践的双维度定价模型，揭示碳价联动、强制掺混等工具的跨区域异质性效应，系统探究了原料成本、政策工具、技术路径及区域差异对可持续航空燃料（ SAF）价格的动态影响。实证结果表明：原料价格波动对SAF成本驱动显著（废弃油脂回归系数0.451，农林废弃物0.281）；强制掺混政策对价格的短期拉动效应强于财税补贴（边际提升0.106 vs降本0.228），且呈现边际递减特性；碳价与补贴的协同作用可显著提升SAF溢价（交互项系数-0.108）。研究揭示了“政策主导需求、原料决定成本、技术路径分化”的全球SAF市场特征，提出“短期双轨制—中期指数化—远期并轨”的中国SAF定价路径，并设计“原料锚定+人民币定价权+碳市场衔接”的本土化方案，为新兴经济体SAF市场发展提供范式参考。

英文摘要:

      This study constructs a two-dimensional pricing model covering global patterns and Chinese practices based on the market equilibrium theory, cost-plus model, and policy transmission mechanism. It reveals the cross-regional heterogeneous effects of tools such as carbon price linkage and mandatory blending, and systematically explores the dynamic impacts of raw material costs, policy tools, technological paths, and regional differences on the price of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). The empirical results show that: the price fluctuations of raw materials have a significant cost-driving effect on SAF (regression coefficients: 0.451 for waste oils, 0.281 for agricultural and forestry residues); the short- erm price-pulling effect of the mandatory blending policy is stronger than that of fiscal and tax subsidies (a marginal increase of 0.106 vs. a cost reduction of 0.228), exhibiting diminishing marginal returns; the synergistic effect of carbon prices and subsidies can significantly increase the SAF premium (the interaction term coefficient is -0.108). The research reveals the global SAF market characteristics of“policy-dominated demand, raw material-determined costs, and technological paths differentiation”, proposes a Chinese SAF pricing path of“dual-track system in the short term, indexation in the medium term, and convergence in the long term”, and designs a localization plan of“raw material anchoring + RMB pricing power + carbon market connection”, providing a paradigm reference for SAF market development in emerging economies.