国家大数据综合试验区设立是否促进减污降碳协同增效？——基于双重机器学习的因果推断

Does the Establishment of National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zone Promote Synergistic Reduction of Pollution and Carbon Emissions? —A Causal Inference Analysis Based on Double Machine Learning

中文关键词:  国家大数据综合试验区  减污降碳协同增效  双重机器学习  空间协调

英文关键词:national big data comprehensive pilot zone  synergistic reduction of pollution and carbon emissions  dual machine learning  spatial coordination

中文摘要:

      推动减污降碳协同增效是实现中国生态文明建设与经济高质量发展的重要目标。作为数据要素市场化改革的先行试点，国家大数据综合试验区的政策效应能否破解污染减排、碳排放强度降低与经济增长之间的协同困境亟待探明。本研究基于2011—2022年中国297个地级及以上城市面板数据，以“国家大数据综合试验区”（以下简称“试验区”）设立为准自然实验，采用双重机器学习模型探究试验区设立对减污降碳协同增效的因果效应。研究结果表明：①试验区设立显著促进减污降碳协同增效，这一结论在内生性检验及稳健性检验后依然成立；②试验区设立通过产业结构升级、绿色技术创新与数字普惠金融发展三链协同机制推动减污降碳协同增效；③异质性分析表明，试验区设立在高新质生产力关注度城市、非资源型城市及大型城市中效果更为显著；④试验区设立在促进减污降碳协同增效方面具有空间协调效应，能够在全国和地区层面缩小减污降碳协同增效的相对发展差距。本研究为数字经济时代统筹污染治理、碳减排与经济增长的协同路径提供新论据，为差异化构建数据赋能的环境治理体系、推动经济社会全面绿色低碳转型提供政策启示。

英文摘要:

      Synergizing the reduction of pollution and carbon emissions represents an important goal in achieving China’s ecological civilization and high-quality economic development. As pioneering pilot zones for market-oriented reform of data elements, it remains to be explored whether the policy effects of the national big data comprehensive pilot zones can solve the synergistic dilemma among pollution abatement, carbon emission intensity reduction and economic growth. Based on the panel data of 297 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2011 to 2022, this study treats the establishment of the national big data comprehensive pilot zone (hereinafter referred to as the pilot zone) as a quasi-natural experiment and employs a double machine learning model to investigate the causal effects of the pilot zone on the reduction of pollution and carbon emissions. The study finds that:① the establishment of the pilot zone significantly promotes the synergistic reduction of pollution and carbon emissions, and this conclusion remains valid after endogeneity and robustness tests; ② The establishment of the pilot zone promotes synergizing the reduction of pollution and carbon emissions through a three-chain synergistic mechanism of industrial structure upgrading, green technology innovation and digital inclusive finance development;③ Heterogeneity analysis shows that the establishment of the pilot zone is more effective in high attention to new quality productvity ctics non-resource-based cities, and large cities;④ The establishment of pilot zones has a spatial coordination effect in promoting the synergistic reduction of pollution and carbon emissions, narrowing the relative development gap at both the national and regional levels. This study provides new arguments for integrating the synergistic paths of pollution management, carbon reduction and economic growth in the era of digital economy, and provides policy insights for differentiating the construction of a data-enabled environmental governance system and promoting a comprehensive green and low-carbon transformation of the economy and society.